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UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE | Tuesday, 10 November 2026 | Vol. 2026-314 | As of 100640 EST NOV 26
BLUF. WIRE Economics holds at ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, trend =, as the energy shock eases while rates stay hawkish. Brent settled $92.57 on 9 Nov, down 5.85% and its lowest settle since 31 Aug (Dow Jones via Morningstar). It then traded near $90.14 early Tuesday after President Trump said Iran "militarily is effectively over" (CNBC). AAA gasoline is $3.979 (AAA). Treasury's 10y par yield was 4.88% on 9 Nov (Treasury), and markets price about 84% odds of a December hike (Trading Economics). October CPI prints at 08:30 ET today, after this edition, with no 12-month change, so ECO-21 is void. BTC's 00:00 UTC price was $75,267.
| TOPIC | CRISIS LEVEL | DOM. INDICATOR | KEY DRIVER (today) | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECO-T2 Inflation and energy | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | Brent settle $92.57, ~$90 intraday; AAA $3.979; CPI 08:30 ET (m/m only) | ↓ |
| ECO-T1 Rates, Fed and sovereign | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | 10y 4.88%; 2y 4.61%; Dec hike ~84%; $42B 10y auction today; override +1 kept | = |
| ECO-T5 Digital assets (Bitcoin) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | BTC $75.3k (~40.4% off ATH); ETFs −$201M on 9 Nov; Mercado Bitcoin Pix next week | = |
| ECO-T3 Labor and growth | NO CRISIS | ROUTINE | Payrolls +165k carried | = |
| ECO-T4 Housing and mortgage | NO CRISIS | ABNORMAL | 30y fixed 7.18% (5 Nov PMMS) carried | = |
Family level = highest topic level. Roll-up per WIRE_METHOD §1a. Trend key: ↑ toward crisis, ↓ away, = no net change.
Change line. Family ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS and trend = unchanged vs 9 Nov. Dom ABNORMAL held. ECO-T5 trend ↑ → =; ECO-T2 trend ↓ held.
Moved indicators (vs 9 Nov). None changed band. Within band: Brent ABNORMAL ($98.32 → $92.57 settle); gasoline ABNORMAL (AAA $4.009 → $3.979); B-1 ABNORMAL (~40.8% → ~40.4%); B-10 ROUTINE (F&G 29 → 32).
ICE Brent January settled $92.57 (−$5.75) on 9 Nov and WTI $86.85; Brent fell more than $7 in post-settlement trade (Reuters via Euronext; Xinhua). Morgan Stanley said Dated Brent had slipped to a discount to nearby futures (Reuters). That reverses the physical premium noted yesterday. At 05:33 ET Brent was $90.14 after dipping below $90 for the first time since August (CNBC). AAA regular is $3.979, down from $4.149 a week ago (AAA). EIA's figure for the week of 9 Nov is due today; the last print was $4.153 for 2 Nov (EIA). BLS will publish October CPI at 08:30 ET with month-over-month changes only. It cannot compute 12-month changes because October 2025 prices were never collected (Investing.com; BLS). The Reuters consensus is +0.3% headline and +0.2% core m/m (CNBC). October PPI follows on 13 Nov. Indicators. Core CPI / T5YIE ROUTINE (carried). Brent ABNORMAL, gasoline ABNORMAL. Roll-up: 2 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, trend ↓. Analyst Comment. With Dated Brent now at a discount, the physical market no longer contradicts the futures sell-off. A settle under $90 would resolve ECO-18 and pull Brent toward the Routine band (<$85). The main reversal risk is still a Gulf infrastructure strike.
Treasury par yields on 9 Nov: 2y 4.56%, 10y 4.88%, 30y 5.26% (Treasury). Early Tuesday the 2y was up ~6 bp at 4.61% and the 10y 4.882% (CNBC). Markets price about 84% odds of a December hike, up from ~74% a week earlier (Trading Economics, citing CME FedWatch). The $42B 10-year auction is today and the 30-year on 12 Nov. The bond market is closed on 11 Nov for Veterans Day (Yonhap Infomax). Indicators. 10y ABNORMAL; weekly move ROUTINE; Fed vs pricing ROUTINE; auctions ROUTINE (carried). Formula NO CRISIS; override +1 to ENVIRONMENT (kept): markets price a December hike as the base case, and it is firming. Trend =. Analyst Comment. Falling oil has not lowered the front end. The 2y rose on the day, so the market is treating the labor data, not energy, as the driver of the Fed. A core print of 0.3% or more would likely lock in December.
CoinGecko 00:00 UTC prices were $74,740 on 9 Nov and $75,267 on 10 Nov, with spot ~$74,176 later (CoinGecko). That is ≈ 40.4% below the ~$126.2k ATH. Fear & Greed 32 (Fear) (Alternative.me). USDT $0.9990, USDC $0.9995 (CoinGecko). Hashrate ~967 EH/s (mempool.space). US spot ETFs posted −$201.0M on 9 Nov, the first day of the BTC-20 week (Farside). Mercado Bitcoin opened view-only web access on 9 Nov. It scheduled Pix deposits and withdrawals, to same-holder accounts only, for next week. Trading and crypto transfers will follow later, with no date (Valor Econômico; Mercado Bitcoin help center). Cointelegraph puts the loss at ~$49M (Cointelegraph). Indicators. B-1 ABNORMAL, B-4 ABNORMAL (prior week −$1.28B carried), B-5 ABNORMAL (hike pricing; Brent $85–110), B-7 ABNORMAL (carried, the month's hack window); others ROUTINE. Roll-up: 4 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, trend = (price stable, sentiment up slightly). Tripwires not met. Analyst Comment. BTC is holding about $3k above the BTC-21 line ($72k). A Pix restart next week would likely resolve BTC-22 as a hit.
No new release. Payrolls +165k, U-3 4.1% carried (BLS). Claims, Sahm, GDPNow and ISM ROUTINE (carried). Roll-up NO CRISIS, trend =.
PMMS 30y fixed 7.18% (5 Nov) carried (Freddie Mac); 30y ABNORMAL. Existing-home sales are due 12 Nov. Roll-up NO CRISIS, trend =.
Resolved today: ECO-21 (Oct CPI y/y ≥3.7%, 55%): void. BLS will not publish an October 12-month change, so there is no Brier.
Open (notes): ECO-16 (35%, Brent >$110 by 10 Nov): the 3–9 Nov settles peaked at $103.60, and the final 10 Nov settle is pending. It needs about +$20 today and is almost certainly a miss; it resolves next run. ECO-22 (35%, core ≥0.3% m/m) resolves on today's 08:30 release, next run. ECO-14 (45%, EIA <$4.150) awaits today's EIA print. ECO-18 (35%, Brent <$90 settle by 13 Nov) is now in play at ~$90. ECO-17 (30%), ECO-19 (35%) with 10y at 4.88%. ECO-13 (30%), ECO-20 (40%) need a large rebound. BTC-19 (35%) remote; BTC-21 (30%) ~$3k away; BTC-20 (30%) week opens −$201M. BTC-22 (60%) on track. ECO-02, ECO-11, BTC-01..04: no change.
New (dated 2026-11-10): - ECO-23: EIA US regular gasoline for the week of 16 Nov is below $4.000. 70%, likely. Resolve by 2026-11-18. - BTC-23: Mercado Bitcoin announces resumed crypto trading for customers on or before 30 Nov. 40%, unlikely. Resolve by 2026-11-30.
Dow Jones/Morningstar; Reuters/Euronext; Xinhua; CNBC; AAA; EIA; BLS; Investing.com; U.S. Treasury; Trading Economics; Yonhap Infomax; CoinGecko; Alternative.me; mempool.space; Farside Investors; Valor Econômico; Mercado Bitcoin help center; Cointelegraph; Freddie Mac.
WIRE Economics | WIRE Desk | Open-source analysis. Not investment, legal or voting advice. UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE.
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