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WIRE World Instability

Regional and global conflict and stability: Middle East, Europe/Russia, Americas, Indo-Pacific, Africa, and a Global roll-up.

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PROBABLE  Trend ↑ · 23 Oct 2026

Brent jumps 4% to $113.17 as Aramco evacuates its Dhahran HQ and Houthis fire at Riyadh. Russia hits Ukraine's grid a 10th day (RUS-10 hit). Early vote passes 20M (MID-07 hit).

WIRE World Instability dashboard, 2026-10-23

Regional sub-WIREs

REGIONCRISIS LEVELTOPICS
GlobalPROBABLEGlobal roll-up
Middle EastPROBABLEWidespread war (Israel-originated)
Europe/RussiaPOTENTIALRussian aggression
AmericasENVIRONMENTUS election integrity (midterms)
Indo-PacificENVIRONMENTKorean Peninsula (IP-T2 scored; IP-T1 NO CRISIS; IP-T3 baselining)
AfricaNOT YET SCOREDSudan, Horn and Sahel

Prediction counter

WIRE World Instability: 40 calls logged · 33 open · 7 resolved (6 hits, 1 miss) · mean Brier 0.223 (0 = perfect)

Open calls

IDPREDICTIONPROB.RESOLVES BYWIRE / TOPIC
MID-04D.D.C. Judge Loren AliKhan consolidates the LULAC, NAACP, and/or DSCC polling-place suits (any two or all three) by 24 Oct 202655%24 Oct 2026World Instability
Americas: US election integrity
RUS-09Russia launches more than 400 drones and missiles combined at Ukraine in a single overnight attack55%25 Oct 2026World Instability
Europe/Russia: Russian aggression
MID-06At least one plaintiff in LULAC v. DHS, NAACP v. DHS, DSCC v. ICE, or NAACP v. DOJ (or a consolidated successor) files a motion for a TRO or preliminary injunction50%27 Oct 2026World Instability
Americas: US election integrity
WAR-12Israel conducts an airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs (Dahiyeh)20%27 Oct 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
RUS-14Ukrenergo, the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy, or ISW report Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure on 15 or more distinct calendar days between 14 and 31 Oct 202675%31 Oct 2026World Instability
Europe/Russia: Russian aggression
WAR-09Egypt's House of Representatives votes to approve the authorization President Sisi requested on 17 Oct for action to defend Saudi Arabia (if requested by Riyadh)70%31 Oct 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
RUS-02In-person trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine official talks take place35%31 Oct 2026World Instability
Europe/Russia: Russian aggression
RUS-06Russia launches more than 800 drones and missiles at Ukraine in a single overnight attack30%31 Oct 2026World Instability
Europe/Russia: Russian aggression
RUS-05Kremlin or Russian MFA publicly confirms Russia has agreed to halt strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure (any scope)20%31 Oct 2026World Instability
Europe/Russia: Russian aggression
WAR-16Saudi authorities or the Saudi-led coalition report at least one more death on Saudi territory caused by a drone or missile attack (including interception debris) between 23 Oct and 3 Nov 202660%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
WAR-13UK forces (RAF Typhoons or UK air defence in Saudi Arabia) intercept or destroy a Houthi drone or missile over Saudi territory50%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
WAR-17Saudi authorities, Aramco or the Saudi-led coalition confirm that a Houthi drone or missile (or interception debris) damaged an Aramco facility between 23 Oct and 3 Nov 202650%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
MID-08A plaintiff files a motion for a TRO or preliminary injunction in LULAC v. DHS, NAACP v. DHS, DSCC v. ICE or NAACP v. DOJ (D.D.C.) or a consolidated successor between 22 Oct and 3 Nov 202645%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Americas: US election integrity
WAR-07At least one additional commercial vessel (beyond GFS Pride and Cape Dao) sinks in or near the Strait of Hormuz before 3 Nov 202645%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
WAR-06US (White House/DoD/CENTCOM) publicly announces that US forces will join Saudi military strikes against the Houthis40%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
WAR-10Egyptian or Saudi officials confirm that Egyptian military units have deployed to or arrived in Saudi territory25%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
WAR-08Front-month ICE Brent crude settles above $120/bbl on any day between 2026-10-17 and 2026-11-0320%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
WAR-11Front-month ICE Brent crude settles below $100/bbl on any day between 2026-10-19 and 2026-11-0320%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
WAR-15A Kpler media briefing reports a 7-day average of Total Hormuz Clearance at or above the pre-war baseline (about 17.1 mb/d)20%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
MID-05A D.D.C. judge issues a TRO or preliminary injunction restricting armed federal agents or DOJ poll monitors at or near polling places for the 3 Nov election15%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Americas: US election integrity
WAR-14Israel conducts a strike on Iranian territory between 20 Oct and 3 Nov 202615%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
WAR-05US conducts acknowledged strikes on Iranian territory between 2026-10-14 and 2026-11-0310%3 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
MID-01AP calls control of both House and Senate by 13 Nov 2026 (E+10)70%13 Nov 2026World Instability
Americas: US election integrity
IPA-01North Korea conducts a ballistic missile launch between 23 Oct and 15 Nov 202645%15 Nov 2026World Instability
Indo-Pacific
RUS-13Officials of Russia, the United States and Ukraine meet in person in a trilateral format (any level) between 22 Oct and 20 Nov 202650%20 Nov 2026World Instability
Europe/Russia: Russian aggression
RUS-12Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person (any venue)30%20 Nov 2026World Instability
Europe/Russia: Russian aggression
RUS-01Russia holds a publicly announced strategic nuclear forces exercise with ICBM or SLBM launches50%30 Nov 2026World Instability
Europe/Russia: Russian aggression
WAR-02US conducts acknowledged strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen35%30 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
WAR-04Iran launches ballistic missiles or drones that strike or are intercepted over Israeli territory35%30 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
WAR-01US and Iran both publicly announce an agreement restoring commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz20%30 Nov 2026World Instability
Middle East: widespread war
MID-03At least one county board or state certifying body refuses or fails to certify a 3 Nov federal-race result by its statutory deadline (incl. court-ordered certification)30%15 Dec 2026World Instability
Americas: US election integrity
MID-02Democrats win a House majority (218+ seats) per AP call85%31 Dec 2026World Instability
Americas: US election integrity
RUS-04Any NATO member formally requests Article 4 consultations over a Russia-related incident15%31 Dec 2026World Instability
Europe/Russia: Russian aggression

Confirmed calls

IDPREDICTIONPROB.PREDICTEDCONFIRMEDBRIER
RUS-10Ukrenergo, Ukrainian Ministry of Energy, or ISW reports Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure on 10 or more distinct calendar days between 14 and 31 Oct 202670%19 Oct 202623 Oct 20260.090
MID-07NBC News early-vote tracker shows at least 20 million mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally60%21 Oct 202623 Oct 20260.160
RUS-11US envoy Steve Witkoff meets Vladimir Putin in person55%20 Oct 202621 Oct 20260.203
RUS-08Zelensky meets US envoy Steve Witkoff and/or Jared Kushner in person50%17 Oct 202621 Oct 20260.250
RUS-07Ukrenergo, Ukrainian Ministry of Energy, or ISW reports Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure on 8 or more distinct calendar days between 14 and 31 Oct 202655%16 Oct 202621 Oct 20260.203
RUS-03Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure reported on 5 or more separate days (14-31 Oct)70%13 Oct 202619 Oct 20260.090

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