| ID | PREDICTION | PROB. | RESOLVES BY |
|---|
| RUS-09 | Russia launches more than 400 drones and missiles combined at Ukraine in a single overnight attack | 55% | 25 Oct 2026 |
| RUS-14 | Ukrenergo, the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy, or ISW report Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure on 15 or more distinct calendar days between 14 and 31 Oct 2026 | 75% | 31 Oct 2026 |
| RUS-02 | In-person trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine official talks take place | 35% | 31 Oct 2026 |
| RUS-06 | Russia launches more than 800 drones and missiles at Ukraine in a single overnight attack | 30% | 31 Oct 2026 |
| RUS-05 | Kremlin or Russian MFA publicly confirms Russia has agreed to halt strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure (any scope) | 20% | 31 Oct 2026 |
| RUS-13 | Officials of Russia, the United States and Ukraine meet in person in a trilateral format (any level) between 22 Oct and 20 Nov 2026 | 50% | 20 Nov 2026 |
| RUS-12 | Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person (any venue) | 30% | 20 Nov 2026 |
| RUS-01 | Russia holds a publicly announced strategic nuclear forces exercise with ICBM or SLBM launches | 50% | 30 Nov 2026 |
| RUS-04 | Any NATO member formally requests Article 4 consultations over a Russia-related incident | 15% | 31 Dec 2026 |