Latest dashboard
ENVIRONMENT Trend ↑ · 23 Oct 2026
Brent settles $113.17 (highest close since 4 May) while a flight to Treasuries drops the 10-year to 4.96%; 30-year mortgage eases to 7.32%; BTC $81.3k, drawdown past 35%; Oct hike odds ~10%.
Rates and sovereign debt, inflation and energy pass-through, labor and growth, housing, and digital assets (Bitcoin).
ENVIRONMENT Trend ↑ · 23 Oct 2026
Brent settles $113.17 (highest close since 4 May) while a flight to Treasuries drops the 10-year to 4.96%; 30-year mortgage eases to 7.32%; BTC $81.3k, drawdown past 35%; Oct hike odds ~10%.
WIRE Economics: 12 calls logged · 12 open · 0 resolved (0 hits, 0 misses) · mean Brier n/a (0 = perfect)
| ID | PREDICTION | PROB. | RESOLVES BY | WIRE / TOPIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-08 | US spot Bitcoin ETFs record a net inflow for the trading week 19-23 Oct 2026 | 40% | 24 Oct 2026 | Economics Economics: digital assets (Bitcoin) |
| ECO-04 | The FOMC statement of 28 Oct 2026 records at least one dissent in favor of a higher target range | 55% | 28 Oct 2026 | Economics Economics |
| BTC-06 | BTC UTC daily close below $78,000 on any day on or before 28 Oct 2026 | 40% | 28 Oct 2026 | Economics Economics: digital assets (Bitcoin) |
| BTC-07 | BTC UTC daily close above $85,000 on any day on or before 28 Oct 2026 | 40% | 28 Oct 2026 | Economics Economics: digital assets (Bitcoin) |
| BTC-05 | FOMC announces an increase in the federal funds target range at the 27-28 Oct 2026 meeting | 35% | 28 Oct 2026 | Economics Economics: digital assets (Bitcoin) |
| ECO-03 | BEA advance estimate of Q3 2026 real GDP growth is at or above 3.0% (SAAR) | 65% | 30 Oct 2026 | Economics Economics |
| ECO-01 | Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed rate prints at or below 7.25% in any weekly release from 2026-10-22 through 2026-11-19 | 35% | 19 Nov 2026 | Economics Economics |
| ECO-02 | 10-year Treasury yield closes at or above 5.25% on any date from 2026-10-23 through 2026-11-20 | 40% | 20 Nov 2026 | Economics Economics |
| BTC-04 | CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) or successor market-structure bill is NOT signed into law | 90% | 31 Dec 2026 | Economics Economics: digital assets (Bitcoin) |
| BTC-01 | BTC daily close below $70,000 on any day | 30% | 31 Dec 2026 | Economics Economics: digital assets (Bitcoin) |
| BTC-03 | BTC 30-day realized volatility (annualized) exceeds 60% on any day | 25% | 31 Dec 2026 | Economics Economics: digital assets (Bitcoin) |
| BTC-02 | BTC daily close above $100,000 on any day | 20% | 31 Dec 2026 | Economics Economics: digital assets (Bitcoin) |
| ID | PREDICTION | PROB. | PREDICTED | CONFIRMED | BRIER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No calls confirmed yet | |||||