Latest dashboard
POTENTIAL Trend ↑ · 23 Oct 2026
Chip stocks crack: SOX falls 6.7% to 26.7% below its June high, Solidigm shelves its US IPO and CoreWeave CDS tops 1,000 bp, putting three AI-financing indicators at Significant.
The operating environment for firms: corporate credit, AI-build-out financing, supply chains and freight, trade policy, and equity markets.
POTENTIAL Trend ↑ · 23 Oct 2026
Chip stocks crack: SOX falls 6.7% to 26.7% below its June high, Solidigm shelves its US IPO and CoreWeave CDS tops 1,000 bp, putting three AI-financing indicators at Significant.
WIRE Business: 7 calls logged · 7 open · 0 resolved (0 hits, 0 misses) · mean Brier n/a (0 = perfect)
| ID | PREDICTION | PROB. | RESOLVES BY | WIRE / TOPIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIZ-02 | Drewry World Container Index composite is at or below $4,300 per 40ft | 55% | 12 Nov 2026 | Business Business |
| BIZ-03 | S&P 500 posts a record close above 7,818.93 | 45% | 13 Nov 2026 | Business Business |
| BIZ-07 | Drewry World Container Index composite is at or above $5,000/40ft in any weekly assessment published 29 Oct to 19 Nov 2026 | 20% | 19 Nov 2026 | Business Business |
| BIZ-04 | ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield OAS (FRED BAMLH0A3HYC) prints at or above 14.00% | 40% | 20 Nov 2026 | Business Business |
| BIZ-06 | Nasdaq Composite (FRED NASDAQCOM) closes at or below 24,839.81 (10% below its 6 Oct 2026 record close of 27,599.79) on any trading day from 23 Oct to 20 Nov 2026 | 35% | 20 Nov 2026 | Business Business |
| BIZ-01 | ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2) prints at or above 3.75% | 30% | 20 Nov 2026 | Business Business |
| BIZ-05 | PHLX Semiconductor Index closes at or below 10,976.04 (25% below its 22 Jun 2026 closing high of 14,634.72) | 30% | 20 Nov 2026 | Business Business |
| ID | PREDICTION | PROB. | PREDICTED | CONFIRMED | BRIER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No calls confirmed yet | |||||