| ID | PREDICTION | PROB. | RESOLVES BY |
|---|
| MID-04 | D.D.C. Judge Loren AliKhan consolidates the LULAC, NAACP, and/or DSCC polling-place suits (any two or all three) by 24 Oct 2026 | 55% | 24 Oct 2026 |
| MID-06 | At least one plaintiff in LULAC v. DHS, NAACP v. DHS, DSCC v. ICE, or NAACP v. DOJ (or a consolidated successor) files a motion for a TRO or preliminary injunction | 50% | 27 Oct 2026 |
| MID-08 | A plaintiff files a motion for a TRO or preliminary injunction in LULAC v. DHS, NAACP v. DHS, DSCC v. ICE or NAACP v. DOJ (D.D.C.) or a consolidated successor between 22 Oct and 3 Nov 2026 | 45% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| MID-05 | A D.D.C. judge issues a TRO or preliminary injunction restricting armed federal agents or DOJ poll monitors at or near polling places for the 3 Nov election | 15% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| MID-01 | AP calls control of both House and Senate by 13 Nov 2026 (E+10) | 70% | 13 Nov 2026 |
| MID-03 | At least one county board or state certifying body refuses or fails to certify a 3 Nov federal-race result by its statutory deadline (incl. court-ordered certification) | 30% | 15 Dec 2026 |
| MID-02 | Democrats win a House majority (218+ seats) per AP call | 85% | 31 Dec 2026 |