| ID | PREDICTION | PROB. | RESOLVES BY |
|---|
| WAR-12 | Israel conducts an airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) | 20% | 27 Oct 2026 |
| WAR-09 | Egypt's House of Representatives votes to approve the authorization President Sisi requested on 17 Oct for action to defend Saudi Arabia (if requested by Riyadh) | 70% | 31 Oct 2026 |
| WAR-16 | Saudi authorities or the Saudi-led coalition report at least one more death on Saudi territory caused by a drone or missile attack (including interception debris) between 23 Oct and 3 Nov 2026 | 60% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-13 | UK forces (RAF Typhoons or UK air defence in Saudi Arabia) intercept or destroy a Houthi drone or missile over Saudi territory | 50% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-17 | Saudi authorities, Aramco or the Saudi-led coalition confirm that a Houthi drone or missile (or interception debris) damaged an Aramco facility between 23 Oct and 3 Nov 2026 | 50% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-07 | At least one additional commercial vessel (beyond GFS Pride and Cape Dao) sinks in or near the Strait of Hormuz before 3 Nov 2026 | 45% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-06 | US (White House/DoD/CENTCOM) publicly announces that US forces will join Saudi military strikes against the Houthis | 40% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-10 | Egyptian or Saudi officials confirm that Egyptian military units have deployed to or arrived in Saudi territory | 25% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-08 | Front-month ICE Brent crude settles above $120/bbl on any day between 2026-10-17 and 2026-11-03 | 20% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-11 | Front-month ICE Brent crude settles below $100/bbl on any day between 2026-10-19 and 2026-11-03 | 20% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-15 | A Kpler media briefing reports a 7-day average of Total Hormuz Clearance at or above the pre-war baseline (about 17.1 mb/d) | 20% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-14 | Israel conducts a strike on Iranian territory between 20 Oct and 3 Nov 2026 | 15% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-05 | US conducts acknowledged strikes on Iranian territory between 2026-10-14 and 2026-11-03 | 10% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-02 | US conducts acknowledged strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen | 35% | 30 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-04 | Iran launches ballistic missiles or drones that strike or are intercepted over Israeli territory | 35% | 30 Nov 2026 |
| WAR-01 | US and Iran both publicly announce an agreement restoring commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz | 20% | 30 Nov 2026 |