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UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE | Wednesday, 11 November 2026 | Vol. 2026-315 | As of 110645 EST NOV 26
BLUF. WIRE Economics holds at ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, and the trend turns ↑ as rates, not oil, now drive the estimate. October CPI rose 0.4% and core 0.3% m/m, both above consensus, with no 12-month figure published (Reuters). The $42B 10-year auction stopped at 5.020%, tailing 1 bp (TreasuryBonds.com). Treasury's 10y par yield closed at 4.98% (+10 bp) (Treasury). FedWatch prices 88.8% for a 25 bp December hike and 11.2% for 50 bp (Investing.com). Brent settled $91.49 (CNBC). Resolved: ECO-22 hit, ECO-14 hit, ECO-16 miss.
| TOPIC | CRISIS LEVEL | DOM. INDICATOR | KEY DRIVER (today) | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECO-T1 Rates, Fed and sovereign | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | 10y 4.98% (+10 bp); 2y 4.73%; 10y auction 5.020%, 1 bp tail; Dec hike ~89%, 50 bp 11% | ↑ |
| ECO-T2 Inflation and energy | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | Core CPI +0.3% m/m (3rd straight); Brent settle $91.49; EIA gas $3.995 | = |
| ECO-T5 Digital assets (Bitcoin) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | BTC $73.7k (~41.6% off ATH); ETFs −$95.0M on 10 Nov; F&G 29 | = |
| ECO-T3 Labor and growth | NO CRISIS | ROUTINE | Payrolls +165k carried | = |
| ECO-T4 Housing and mortgage | NO CRISIS | ABNORMAL | 30y fixed 7.18% (5 Nov PMMS) carried; PMMS due 12 Nov | = |
Family level = highest topic level. Roll-up per WIRE_METHOD §1a. Trend key: ↑ toward crisis, ↓ away, = no net change.
Change line. Family level ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS and dom ABNORMAL unchanged vs 10 Nov. Family trend = → ↑. ECO-T1 trend = → ↑; ECO-T2 trend ↓ → =.
Moved indicators (vs 10 Nov). None changed band. Within band: 10y ABNORMAL (4.88% → 4.98%); Brent ABNORMAL ($92.57 → $91.49 settle); gasoline ABNORMAL (EIA $4.153 → $3.995); B-1 ABNORMAL (~40.4% → ~41.6% off ATH); B-10 ROUTINE (F&G 32 → 29).
Treasury par yields on 10 Nov: 2y 4.73% (from 4.56%), 10y 4.98% (from 4.88%), 30y 5.35% (Treasury). The weekly 10y move is +3 bp vs 4.95% on 3 Nov. The 10-year reopening priced at 5.020% against a 5.010% when-issued yield. Bid-to-cover was 2.46 vs a 2.53 average, and indirects took 61.2% vs a 71.4% average (TreasuryBonds.com; SquawkNews). Governor Waller left the door open to a 50 bp hike if inflation stays hot (CNBC). FedWatch now prices no December hold (Investing.com). The bond market is closed today for Veterans Day. The 30-year auction is on 12 Nov. Indicators. 10y ABNORMAL; weekly move ROUTINE; Fed vs pricing ROUTINE (no meeting); auctions ROUTINE (1 bp tail, soft indirects, not failed). Formula NO CRISIS; override +1 to ENVIRONMENT (kept): a December hike is fully priced, and a 50 bp tail is now priced at 11%. Trend ↑. Analyst Comment. The front end repriced 17 bp in a day on the CPI print and Fed commentary. The weak foreign bid at 5% is the signal to watch. A soft 30-year auction on 12 Nov would likely push the 10y par close through 5.00% (ECO-19). The Significant band is 5.25%, still about 27 bp away.
BLS October CPI: headline +0.4%, core +0.3% m/m SA. Core has now risen 0.3% for three straight months. Energy rose 0.7% and gasoline 1.0%, and shelter rose 0.3% (Reuters; CNBC). BLS published no 12-month change (Trading Economics). ICE Brent settled $91.49 on 10 Nov, with a session low of $89.16; WTI settled $86.04 (CNBC). ADNOC Logistics & Services confirmed that one of its vessels was damaged in an attack in UAE waters on 10 Nov (ADNOC L&S). Brent was ~$92.08 at 07:57 GMT today (Anadolu). EIA US regular gasoline for the week of 9 Nov was $3.995 (−15.8¢), and diesel $6.127 (EIA). October PPI is due 13 Nov. Indicators. Core CPI: the y/y band cannot be scored (not published), so it is carried ROUTINE. T5YIE ROUTINE (carried). Brent ABNORMAL, gasoline ABNORMAL. Roll-up: 2 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, trend =: falling pump prices are offset by a hot core print. Analyst Comment. Three months of 0.3% core annualizes to roughly 3.5–4%. That would sit in the Abnormal y/y band if BLS could compute it. Energy relief is real at the pump but fragile: Gulf shipping attacks continue, and Brent rebounded overnight.
The CoinGecko 00:00 UTC price on 11 Nov was $73,721, with spot ~$73,986 at run time (CoinGecko). That is ≈ 41.6% below the ~$126.2k ATH. Fear & Greed was 29 (Fear) (Alternative.me). USDT $0.9993, USDC $0.9996 (CoinGecko). Hashrate was ~966 EH/s (mempool.space). US spot ETFs posted −$95.0M on 10 Nov, making the week to date −$296.0M (Farside). A Mercado Bitcoin representative said BRL Pix deposits and withdrawals resume "next week". Crypto transfers have no date, and no rollout schedule is posted yet (Cointelegraph Brasil). Indicators. B-1 ABNORMAL, B-4 ABNORMAL (continued outflows), B-5 ABNORMAL (hike pricing firmer), B-7 ABNORMAL (carried, hack window); others ROUTINE. Roll-up: 4 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, trend =. Tripwires not met. Analyst Comment. BTC is trading as a rates asset: it fell about $1.5k on the CPI day. The $72k BTC-21 line is now within about 2.5%, and ETF flows make BTC-20 (weekly inflow) unlikely.
No new release. Payrolls +165k and U-3 4.1% carried (BLS). Claims, Sahm, GDPNow and ISM ROUTINE (carried). Roll-up NO CRISIS, trend =.
PMMS 30y fixed 7.18% (5 Nov) carried (Freddie Mac); 30y ABNORMAL. The next PMMS and existing-home sales are due 12 Nov. Roll-up NO CRISIS, trend =.
Resolved today: ECO-22 (core CPI ≥0.3% m/m, 35%): hit, Brier 0.4225. ECO-14 (EIA gas week of 9 Nov <$4.15, 45%): hit at $3.995, Brier 0.3025. ECO-16 (Brent >$110 by 10 Nov, 35%): miss, peak settle $103.60, Brier 0.1225.
New: ECO-24: PMMS 30y fixed on 12 Nov ≥7.25% (40%, unlikely). ECO-25: FOMC hikes ≥50 bp at its December 2026 meeting (15%, very unlikely).
Open, near-term: ECO-17 (10y ≤4.70% by 13 Nov), ECO-18 (Brent settle <$90 by 13 Nov; 10 Nov low $89.16, settle $91.49), ECO-19 (10y ≥5.00% by 14 Nov; par 4.98%), ECO-20, BTC-19, BTC-20, BTC-21, BTC-22, ECO-23, BTC-23.
Reuters; CNBC; Trading Economics; U.S. Treasury; TreasuryBonds.com; SquawkNews; Investing.com (CME FedWatch); ADNOC L&S; Anadolu; EIA; CoinGecko; Alternative.me; mempool.space; Farside; Cointelegraph Brasil; BLS; Freddie Mac. Links inline.
WIRE Economics | WIRE Desk | Open-source analysis. Not investment, legal or voting advice. UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE.
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