WIRE home · World Instability · Business · Economics · Tech & Cyber · Orthodox · Archive · Subscribe
Download PDF · Dashboard image · All Economics editions
UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE | Thursday, 12 November 2026 | Vol. 2026-316 | As of 120640 EST NOV 26
BLUF. WIRE Economics holds at ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, trend ↑, as the cash 10-year reopened above 5% after the holiday and today's long-bond auction becomes the next test. The 10y traded at 5.01% and the 2y at 4.78% early today (CNBC). Treasury's last par close is still 4.98% (10 Nov) (Treasury). Treasury offers $25B of 30-year bonds at 1:00 PM ET (YieldDocket/Fiscal Service). The daily mortgage index stood at 7.30% on 10 Nov, above the 7.25% PMMS line that ECO-24 tests at noon (MND). Brent settled $92.76 (+1.39%) (Dow Jones/Morningstar). Nothing resolved at write time. New: ECO-26, ECO-27.
| TOPIC | CRISIS LEVEL | DOM. INDICATOR | KEY DRIVER (today) | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECO-T1 Rates, Fed and sovereign | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | Cash 10y ~5.01%, 2y 4.78%; par 4.98% (10 Nov); 30y auction today; Dec hike fully priced | ↑ |
| ECO-T2 Inflation and energy | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | Brent settle $92.76; AAA gas $3.908; PPI due 13 Nov | = |
| ECO-T5 Digital assets (Bitcoin) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | BTC $73,974 (~41.4% off ATH); ETFs −$299.8M on 11 Nov; F&G 28 | = |
| ECO-T4 Housing and mortgage | NO CRISIS | ABNORMAL | MND 30y 7.30% (10 Nov); PMMS due ~noon | ↑ |
| ECO-T3 Labor and growth | NO CRISIS | ROUTINE | Claims due 08:30 ET; payrolls +165k carried | = |
Family level = highest topic level. Roll-up per WIRE_METHOD §1a. Trend key: ↑ toward crisis, ↓ away, = no net change.
Change line. Family level, dom and trend (↑) unchanged vs 11 Nov. ECO-T4 trend = → ↑.
Moved indicators (vs 11 Nov). None changed band. Within band: Brent ABNORMAL ($91.49 → $92.76 settle); retail gasoline ABNORMAL (AAA $3.943 → $3.908); B-1 ABNORMAL (~41.6% → ~41.4% off ATH); B-10 ROUTINE (F&G 29 → 28).
The cash bond market was closed on 11 Nov, so Treasury published no par curve for that date. The 10 Nov par values stand: 2y 4.73%, 10y 4.98%, 30y 5.35% (Treasury). In early trade today, the 10y was up 2 bp at 5.01%, the 2y up 5 bp at 4.78%, and the 30y steady at 5.35% (CNBC). Today's 30-year auction is $25B; the October sale stopped at 5.618% (Investing.com). FedWatch priced 88.8% for a 25 bp December hike and 11.2% for 50 bp, with no hold (Investing.com). Deutsche Bank now forecasts hikes in December, January and March (FXStreet). Indicators. 10y ABNORMAL; weekly move ROUTINE; Fed vs pricing ROUTINE (no meeting); auctions ROUTINE (carried, last tail 1 bp). Formula NO CRISIS; override +1 to ENVIRONMENT (kept): a hike is fully priced, and an 11% tail for 50 bp remains. Trend ↑. Analyst Comment. A par close at or above 5.00% today would resolve ECO-19, and the cash market is already there. Indirect demand at the long-bond sale is the signal to watch after the soft 10y result. A tail of 2 bp or more would likely push the long end toward the October auction level.
ICE Brent (Jan) settled $92.76 on 11 Nov, up $1.27, and is down 21.15% month to date (Dow Jones/Morningstar). WTI settled $86.53 (CNBC). The rise followed an Iranian security official's statement that no enriched nuclear material will leave the country (Reuters via Euronext). Brent was ~$92.92 early today (CNBC). The AAA national average for regular was $3.908 today, down from $3.943 yesterday and $4.100 a week ago (AAA). EIA's last weekly reading is $3.995 (9 Nov) (EIA). October PPI is due Friday 13 Nov; consensus is +0.4% after +1.3% in September (CNBC). Indicators. Core CPI y/y not published, carried ROUTINE; T5YIE ROUTINE (carried); Brent ABNORMAL; gasoline ABNORMAL. Roll-up: 2 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, trend =. Analyst Comment. Pump prices keep falling toward the $3.50 Routine line. That relief probably caps headline PPI, but the core goods strength in the CPI argues against a soft core PPI.
CoinGecko 00:00 UTC on 12 Nov: $73,974; spot ~$73,277 at write time (CoinGecko). That is ≈ 41.4% below the ~$126.2k ATH. US spot ETFs: −$299.8M on 11 Nov; week to date −$595.8M (Farside). Fear & Greed 28 (Alternative.me). USDT $0.9990, USDC $0.9995 (CoinGecko). Hashrate ~982 EH/s daily average (mempool.space). Mercado Bitcoin's help center still lists Pix as the "next phase," with no resumption date posted (MB help center). Indicators. B-1, B-4 (outflows), B-5 (hike pricing) and B-7 (hack window, carried) ABNORMAL; others ROUTINE. 4 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, trend =. No tripwires met. Analyst Comment. With three days of outflows, BTC-20 (a weekly ETF inflow) is very unlikely to hit. The $72k line for BTC-21 is ~1.7% below spot.
The PMMS 30y fixed of 7.18% (5 Nov) is carried (Freddie Mac). MND's daily 30y rose 12 bp to 7.30% on 10 Nov, and no 11 Nov reading was published (MND). October existing-home sales are due at 10:00 ET (CNBC). Indicators. 30y ABNORMAL; others ROUTINE (carried). NO CRISIS, trend ↑: a PMMS print at or above 7.25% would make the 30y Significant.
Initial claims for the week ending 7 Nov are due at 08:30 ET (Finance Calendar). Payrolls +165k and U-3 4.1% are carried (BLS). NO CRISIS, trend =.
Resolved today: none at write time. New: ECO-26: October PPI final demand ≥ +0.5% m/m (30%, unlikely). ECO-27: 10y par close ≥ 5.10% on any date 12–20 Nov (25%, unlikely). Open, near-term: ECO-24 (PMMS ≥ 7.25%, due today at noon), ECO-19 (10y par ≥ 5.00% by 14 Nov), ECO-13, ECO-17, ECO-18 and BTC-19 (all due 13 Nov), ECO-20, BTC-20, BTC-21, ECO-23, BTC-22, ECO-02.
U.S. Treasury; CNBC; YieldDocket (Fiscal Service data); Investing.com; FXStreet; Mortgage News Daily; Dow Jones/Morningstar; Reuters via Euronext; AAA; EIA; CoinGecko; Farside; Alternative.me; mempool.space; Mercado Bitcoin; Freddie Mac; Finance Calendar; BLS. Links inline.
WIRE Economics | WIRE Desk | Open-source analysis. Not investment, legal or voting advice. UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE.
Every WIRE, every morning. Unsubscribe anytime.
Prefer the website? Subscribe on Substack.
WIRE home · World Instability · Business · Economics · Tech & Cyber · Orthodox · Archive · Subscribe
