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UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE | Friday, 13 November 2026 | Vol. 2026-317 | As of 130650 EST NOV 26
BLUF. WIRE Economics holds at ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, trend ↑, as the 10-year closed at 5.10% and Bitcoin broke below $70,000 on rate-hike pricing. Treasury's 12 Nov par curve shows the 10y at 5.10% and the 2y at 4.86%, up 24 bp and 35 bp from 6 Nov (Treasury). The cash 10y was 5.13% early today, the highest since 21 Oct, and CME pricing fully implies a December hike, 88% for 25 bp and 12% for 50 bp (Newsquawk). BTC's 00:00 UTC print was $71,372, and spot fell to about $69.3k (CoinGecko). October PPI is due at 08:30 ET. Resolved: ECO-19, ECO-27 and BTC-21 hit; ECO-24 missed. New: ECO-28, ECO-29, BTC-24.
| TOPIC | CRISIS LEVEL | DOM. INDICATOR | KEY DRIVER (today) | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECO-T1 Rates, Fed and sovereign | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | 10y par 5.10% (+24 bp w/w); cash 5.13%; 30y auction tailed 0.4 bp; Dec hike 100% priced | ↑ |
| ECO-T5 Digital assets (Bitcoin) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | BTC $71,372 close, spot ~$69.3k (~43% off ATH); $1.3B+ liquidations; F&G 20 | ↑ |
| ECO-T2 Inflation and energy | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | Brent settle $95.82 (+3.3%); AAA gas $3.872; PPI 08:30 ET | = |
| ECO-T4 Housing and mortgage | NO CRISIS | ABNORMAL | PMMS 30y 7.11%; existing-home sales 3.75M, lowest since Aug 2010 | = |
| ECO-T3 Labor and growth | NO CRISIS | ROUTINE | Claims 200k; 4-week avg 195,250 | = |
Family level = highest topic level. Roll-up per WIRE_METHOD §1a. Trend key: ↑ toward crisis, ↓ away, = no net change.
Change line. Family level, dom and trend (↑) unchanged vs 12 Nov. ECO-T1 now reaches ENVIRONMENT on the formula, so the +1 override is dropped. ECO-T5 trend = → ↑. ECO-T4 trend ↑ → =.
Moved indicators (vs 12 Nov). Weekly 10y move ROUTINE → ABNORMAL (+24 bp, 6–12 Nov). Within band: 10y ABNORMAL (par 4.98% → 5.10%); Brent ABNORMAL ($92.76 → $95.82); gasoline ABNORMAL (AAA $3.908 → $3.872); PMMS ABNORMAL (7.18% → 7.11%); B-1 ABNORMAL (~41.4% → ~43.4% off ATH); B-10 ROUTINE at the border (F&G 28 → 20).
Treasury's 12 Nov par values were 2y 4.86%, 10y 5.10% and 30y 5.43%, against 4.51%, 4.86% and 5.26% on 6 Nov (Treasury). The $25B 30-year auction stopped at 5.441%, a 0.4 bp tail, with bid-to-cover 2.36x against a 2.44x six-auction average, indirects 68.11% and dealers 11.39% (Newsquawk). Early today the cash 10y was 5.127% and the 30y 5.460% (CNBC). FedWatch puts the odds of a 9 Dec hike at 100%, about 87% for 25 bp and 13% for 50 bp (CNBC). New York Fed President Williams said inflation is "far too high," and Cleveland's Hammack said policy needs to move to a restrictive stance (Capital Market). Indicators. 10y ABNORMAL; weekly move ABNORMAL (+24 bp); Fed vs pricing ROUTINE (no meeting); auctions ROUTINE (small tail, no failure). Roll-up: 2 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS on the formula, so no override is needed. Trend ↑. Analyst Comment. Two soft long-end auctions in a row, with dealers holding more paper, point to concession being built, not cleared. ECO-02 (10y ≥ 5.25% by 20 Nov) needs another 15 bp. A hot PPI today could plausibly get there, but it is not the base case.
The CoinGecko 00:00 UTC print for 13 Nov was $71,372, down 3.5% from $73,974. Spot was about $69,258 at write time (CoinGecko). Bitcoin fell to $68,297, its lowest since 19 Aug, as rate-hike expectations and a strong dollar weighed (Bloomberg via Moneyweb). CoinGlass data show $1.3B+ in crypto futures liquidations over 24 hours (CoinDesk). US spot ETFs posted −$47.7M on 12 Nov (preliminary) and −$643.5M week to date (Farside). Fear & Greed is 20 (Alternative.me). USDT is $0.9992 and USDC $0.9996 (CoinGecko). Hashrate is ~929 EH/s (mempool.space). Reports say Mercado Bitcoin plans to resume Pix deposits and withdrawals next week, with crypto transfers still suspended (Crypto Report). Indicators. B-1 (43.4% off ATH), B-4 (outflows), B-5 (hike pricing, Brent $85–110) and B-7 (hack window, carried) ABNORMAL. B-2 ROUTINE (close-to-close −3.5%). B-10 ROUTINE at the border: F&G 20 is not under 20, and liquidations are below $2B. Others ROUTINE. 4 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, trend ↑. No tripwires met. Analyst Comment. This was a leverage flush on macro pressure, not a plumbing failure, since the pegs and hashrate are steady. BTC-01 (a close below $70k by 31 Dec) is likely to hit at tonight's close if spot holds. A second straight week of outflows would bring B-4 near its $1B weekly line.
ICE Brent (Jan) settled $95.82 on 12 Nov, up $3.06, and WTI settled $88.74 (Dow Jones/Morningstar). The move followed Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi energy sites and the President's statement that no Iran deal is needed (Reuters via Euronext). AAA regular is $3.872 (AAA), and EIA's last weekly reading is $3.995 (9 Nov) (EIA). October PPI is due at 08:30 ET, with consensus at +0.4% m/m (FHLBNY). Indicators. Core CPI ROUTINE (carried); T5YIE ROUTINE (carried); Brent ABNORMAL; gasoline ABNORMAL. 2 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, trend =. Analyst Comment. Pump prices are still falling, so ECO-23 (EIA < $4.00 for the week of 16 Nov) is likely. The Brent rebound works against further relief.
The PMMS 30y fixed was 7.11% for 12 Nov, down from 7.18% (Freddie Mac). October existing-home sales fell 5.5% to 3.75M SAAR, and supply rose to 5.1 months (NAR). That is the lowest pace since August 2010 (Asia Business Daily). Indicators. 30y ABNORMAL; others ROUTINE (carried). NO CRISIS, trend =. Analyst Comment. The PMMS survey closed before this week's 24 bp jump in the 10y, so next week's print will probably rise (ECO-29).
Initial claims were 200,000 for the week ending 7 Nov, and the 4-week average held at 195,250 (FRED/DOL). NO CRISIS, trend =.
Resolved today: ECO-19 HIT (10y par 5.10% ≥ 5.00%; p 0.35, Brier 0.42). ECO-27 HIT (≥ 5.10%; p 0.25, Brier 0.56). ECO-24 MISS (PMMS 7.11% < 7.25%; p 0.40, Brier 0.16). BTC-21 HIT (close $71,372 < $72k; p 0.30, Brier 0.49). New: ECO-28: 2y par ≥ 5.00% on any date 13–25 Nov (35%, unlikely). ECO-29: PMMS 30y ≥ 7.20% on 19 Nov (45%, roughly even chance). BTC-24: BTC UTC close < $65,000 on any day 13–22 Nov (30%, unlikely). Open, due today: ECO-13 and ECO-18 (today's Brent settle), ECO-17 (today's 10y close; very unlikely to hit) and BTC-19 (today's UTC close; very unlikely). All four score next run. Also open: ECO-20, BTC-20 (needs a 13 Nov inflow above $643.5M), ECO-02, ECO-23, ECO-26 (PPI today), BTC-22, BTC-01.
U.S. Treasury; Newsquawk; CNBC; Capital Market; CoinGecko; Bloomberg via Moneyweb; CoinDesk; Farside; Alternative.me; mempool.space; Crypto Report; Dow Jones/Morningstar; Reuters via Euronext; AAA; EIA; FHLBNY; Freddie Mac; NAR; Asia Business Daily; FRED/DOL. Links inline.
WIRE Economics | WIRE Desk | Open-source analysis. Not investment, legal or voting advice. UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE.
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