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UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE | Wednesday, 28 October 2026 | Vol. 2026-301 | As of 280600 EDT OCT 26

Baseline work today: the Levant and Syria (ME-T2) Statement of Normalcy is written and the topic is scored for the first time, at ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS. The Middle East region row stays at PROBABLE because ME-T1 is higher. Next in the rotation: IP-T1 Taiwan Strait (re-baseline), then AM-T2.

BLUF. The Middle East holds at PROBABLE CRISIS with the trend turning ↑. Kpler's 28 Oct briefing puts the 7-day average of oil clearing the Strait of Hormuz at about 48% of its pre-war baseline, the fourth fall in a row, and says Tehran's incentive to escalate before 3 Nov is "sharpening" (WAR-21 hit). The Wall Street Journal reports that the US told Gulf states to prepare for a "short, intense" campaign against Iran after the midterms. The President told a rally, "You'll see Iran in a couple of weeks." Against that, Gulf states are drafting a multipart deal to reopen Hormuz. The coalition intercepted two ballistic missiles over Riyadh, and the Houthis claim a hit on Ras Tanura. Israel's count puts Likud first (27 seats to Yashar's 21), with no bloc at 61. Europe/Russia holds at POTENTIAL (=): the 15th energy-strike day resolves RUS-14 (hit). The Americas hold at ENVIRONMENT (=); MID-06 and WAR-12 expired as misses. Global roll-up: PROBABLE CRISIS (↑).

0. WIRE World Instability Dashboard

REGION / TOPIC CRISIS LEVEL DOM. INDICATOR KEY DRIVER (today) TREND
Global roll-up (GL-T1) PROBABLE CRISIS EXTREME Highest regional level (Middle East); Hormuz flows fall again and post-midterm strike planning is reported ↑
Middle East: widespread war (ME-T1) PROBABLE CRISIS EXTREME Kpler Hormuz 48% of baseline; WSJ post-midterm campaign report; Riyadh intercepts; Israeli count shows a hung Knesset ↑
Middle East: Levant and Syria (ME-T2) ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS SIGNIFICANT First scored: Jordanian strikes in Daraa and Suwayda; Nassib reopened; Israeli forces still inside south Lebanon = (new)
Europe/Russia: Russian aggression (EU-T1) POTENTIAL CRISIS SIGNIFICANT 15th energy-strike day of the window; Oleshky truce holds 30 hours; lighter overnight raid (88 drones) =
Europe: internal stability (EU-T2) ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS SIGNIFICANT Paris "Act III" march filed for 31 Oct; 5 Nov national strike still on =
Americas: US election integrity (AM-T1) ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS SIGNIFICANT 35.35M early votes; no TRO/PI motion by 27 Oct (MID-06 miss); threat assessments due 28 Oct =
Indo-Pacific: Korean Peninsula (IP-T2) ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS ABNORMAL No ballistic launch since 12 Oct =
Indo-Pacific: South China Sea (IP-T3) ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS ABNORMAL Scarborough fuel mission completed without interference; 54 Chinese vessels in the West Philippine Sea =
Indo-Pacific: Taiwan Strait (IP-T1) NO CRISIS ROUTINE 6 PLA aircraft, 7 PLAN ships, 1 official ship =
Africa: Sahel (AF-T2) POTENTIAL CRISIS SIGNIFICANT Bamako blockade continues; no new 20+ event found =
Africa: Sudan and the Horn (AF-T1) ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS SIGNIFICANT Nyala market drone strike (26 Oct): 36 bodies at the MSF hospital; a rights group says 100+ =
Indicator:ROUTINEABNORMALSIGNIFICANTEXTREME Crisis level:NO CRISISENV. FOR CRISISPOTENTIALPROBABLEIMMINENT

Level change since 27 Oct: none on previously scored topics. ME-T2 newly scored at ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS. Middle East and global trend move from = to ↑. Trend key: ↑ toward crisis, ↓ away, = no net change.

Moved indicators (vs 27 Oct). No previously scored indicator changed band. Within-band moves: W-1 EXTREME ↑ (Kpler 7-day average about 48% of baseline, from 54%); W-2 EXTREME ↑ (two ballistic missiles intercepted over Riyadh; Houthi claim on Ras Tanura; alerts in Jeddah and Yanbu); W-5 SIGNIFICANT ↑ (WSJ: Patriot battery moving, extra carrier group and expeditionary unit due next month); W-6 SIGNIFICANT ↑ (Houthis call Egypt's mandate a "declaration of war"); W-8 SIGNIFICANT = (Gulf multipart deal drafted; Iran offers a four-day reopening); R-3 SIGNIFICANT ↓ (88 drones and one ballistic missile overnight); AF-1 SIGNIFICANT ↑ (Nyala); ME-T2 first scored.

I. MIDDLE EAST: ME-T1 WIDESPREAD WAR (ISRAEL-ORIGINATED) | PROBABLE CRISIS

Hormuz and energy. Kpler's media briefing prepared on 28 Oct (flow data to 26 Oct) puts the 7-day average of total Hormuz clearance at 8,203 kbd, about 48% of the pre-war baseline of 17,147 kbd, with a daily range from 737 kbd on 26 Oct to 15,326 kbd on 23 Oct. The 26 Oct reading is a preliminary floor, pulled down by negative Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship net exports. Strait transits excluding Iranian-origin vessels averaged 7,871 kbd (about 46%). Tanker crossings were 8 on 26 Oct, averaging 12 over seven days against a pre-war 50, and Kpler classed 32 of 37 tanker crossings from 23 to 26 Oct as dark or unknown route. Fujairah and Oman loadings ran about 24% above baseline and Red Sea volumes about 15% above. Kpler Insight "sees Tehran's incentive to escalate sharpening ahead of the US midterms on 3 November", notes Iranian oil on water outside the blockade zone is now zero, and cites the IMO as recording at least 10 attacks on VLCCs in October (Kpler media briefing, 28 Oct). UKMTO's 26 Oct warning verified that an outbound tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the strait on 23 Oct and disabled, with crew safe (UKMTO warning 182-26). No new sinking was found (WAR-07 open). Front-month Brent settled at $113.88 on 27 Oct, down 1.67% (Dow Jones Data Talk via Morningstar), and traded at $115.47 at 0435 GMT Wednesday after the Ras Tanura claim (Reuters via Business Recorder, 28 Oct).

Houthi–Saudi front. The coalition spokesman said air defences intercepted two ballistic missiles fired toward Riyadh on 27 Oct (SPA, 27 Oct), after three ballistic missiles aimed at the Eastern Province and four drones toward the south earlier that day (Arab News, 27 Oct). AP reports at least four explosions over Riyadh, shrapnel damage to a building, a construction site and a vehicle with no casualties, and civil-defence alerts late Tuesday in the Jeddah and Yanbu areas (AP, 27 Oct). The Houthi military spokesman said a ballistic missile hit the Ras Tanura refinery (550,000 b/d) and caused "massive fires". The maritime security firm Vanguard said a fire in the Ras Tanura area was contained, with damage and loading impact unclear; Saudi authorities had not confirmed a hit (AFP via Straits Times, 27 Oct). That does not meet WAR-17, which excludes Houthi claims alone. A Houthi political bureau member called Egypt's parliamentary mandate a "declaration of war" against Yemen (same source). WAR-20 tally: 1 day (27 Oct) of the 5 needed by 9 Nov.

US posture. The Wall Street Journal reported on 27 Oct that the US told several Gulf states, through diplomatic and military channels, to prepare for a "short, intense military campaign" against Iran after the 3 Nov elections. Per the report, a Patriot system is moving from Texas, munitions are being restocked, and an additional carrier strike group and an expeditionary unit are due next month. The President has not decided but is leaning toward a large post-election attack. The White House declined to discuss "sensitive military plans that may or may not exist". At a Lubbock rally the President said, "You'll see Iran in a couple of weeks" (Anadolu summarizing WSJ, 28 Oct). No US or Israeli strike on Iranian soil was found inside the current windows (WAR-05, WAR-14 open). A European aggregator item claiming new US strikes on Larak Island was traced to the 30 Aug strikes and is not used (see Gaps).

Diplomacy. The Guardian reports Gulf states are drafting a multipart deal: Hormuz would reopen within four days of sanctions being lifted, and the Houthis would withdraw substantial forces inside Yemen. The US is said to be holding out for a further concession, which European diplomats suggest could be readmitting UN inspectors; Iran has so far refused. SNSC secretary Mohsen Rezaei met the Houthi envoy in Tehran on Tuesday (Guardian, 28 Oct). No joint US–Iran announcement was found (WAR-01 open). Iranian hardliners (Paydari Front) continue to press parliament and the SNSC toward NPT withdrawal; no step has been taken (Iran International, 24 Oct; Al Jazeera, 26 Oct).

Israel's election. Turnout was 77.7% at the close, the highest at that hour since 1999. About 600,000 absentee ballots, mostly from soldiers, will not be fully counted until Thursday (BBC, 28 Oct). Exit polls had Likud first: Channel 12 updated to Likud 27, Yashar 21 and blocs 52–49; Kan and Channel 13 had the blocs tied at 51 (Ynet). With about 51.8% counted, Likud had 27, Yashar 21, Joint List 12, Yachad 11, the Democrats 9, UTJ 9, Yisrael Beiteinu 8, Shas 7, Otzma Yehudit 6, Religious Zionism 6 and Ra'am 4: Netanyahu bloc 55, Eisenkot bloc 49, Arab lists 16 (Ynet). A later Times of Israel liveblog headline at over 76% counted gives the blocs at 54 and 47, with Arab lists at 19 (ToI headline). Both leaders pledged to form the next government. The President will consult party leaders after final results next week. A nominee has up to six weeks, and the incumbent stays on as caretaker meanwhile (BBC, 28 Oct). WAR-22 (Yashar out-seats Likud) is now very unlikely; it resolves on official results. No Iranian launch at Israel on election day was found (WAR-04 open).

Lebanon. Israeli drone, artillery and air strikes continued in the south on 26–27 Oct (Shoukin–Mayfadoun, Mansouri, Qantara outskirts, demolitions in Zawtar al-Sharqiya) (NNA via Anadolu, 27 Oct). No strike on Beirut's southern suburbs was found between 19 and 27 Oct; WAR-12 resolves as a miss.

Indicators. W-1 EXTREME (↑ within band). W-2 EXTREME (↑ within band). W-3 SIGNIFICANT (=; daily strikes in the south, forces holding ground, no Beirut strike since 4 Oct). W-4 ABNORMAL (=). W-5 SIGNIFICANT (↑ within band). W-6 SIGNIFICANT (↑ within band). W-7 SIGNIFICANT (=; Brent $113.88 settle). W-8 SIGNIFICANT (=). Roll-up: 2 Extreme + 5 Significant = PROBABLE. Tripwires (W-5 Extreme, W-6 Extreme, or W-4 and W-3 both Extreme) not met. Trend ↑: a fourth straight fall in Hormuz flows plus reported planning for a post-midterm campaign outweigh the Gulf peace draft.

Analyst Comment. Two clocks now run in parallel. The coercive clock points to the week after 3 Nov: public planning signals, force flow and the President's "couple of weeks". The diplomatic clock runs through Gulf and Omani mediators who offer Iran a four-day reopening for sanctions relief. The gap between them is the inspector question, and Tehran is refusing. Iran's maritime pressure is rising into that window, which fits Kpler's read that Tehran sees leverage before the vote. The Israeli result removes one variable: a caretaker government will be in place through the likely strike window. We judge a US strike on Iranian soil before 3 Nov very unlikely (about 5%) and between 4 and 30 Nov roughly even (about 45%, WAR-23).

Baseline work: Statement of Normalcy, ME-T2 Levant and Syria

SUBJECT: Levant and Syria internal stability (focus: Syria, Lebanon, Jordan border) Normal for this theatre since the 2024-25 transition in Damascus is a weak but recognised central government, localised clashes (Suwayda, the coast, the north-east), a heavily armed southern Lebanon under a contested ceasefire, and periodic foreign strikes. LV-1 Violence volume (Security; L): ACLED weekly events vs 8-week mean. ROUTINE <= +25%; ABNORMAL +25-75%; SIGNIFICANT +75-150%; EXTREME > +150% LV-2 Displacement (Social; Lg): UNHCR/IOM new displacement per week. ROUTINE < 10k; ABNORMAL 10-50k; SIGNIFICANT 50-200k; EXTREME > 200k LV-3 Central control (Political/Security; L): ROUTINE no loss of a provincial capital; ABNORMAL a provincial road cut or a governorate in armed standoff with the centre; SIGNIFICANT loss of a provincial capital; EXTREME loss of Damascus or Beirut security LV-4 Foreign-force incursions (Military; L): ROUTINE isolated cross-border fire; ABNORMAL repeated foreign strikes in one country; SIGNIFICANT foreign strikes in two countries in one week, or foreign forces holding ground; EXTREME a foreign ground offensive toward a capital Baseline sources / period reviewed: OCHA, IFRC/ReliefWeb, Lebanese Health Ministry via NNA/Anadolu, SANA via Al Jazeera, Jordanian statements (Mar-Oct 2026) Current reading. Jordan struck what it called IS "hideouts" in southern Syria on 26 Oct after the Karak church attack. Syria says seven people were killed in Daraa and Suwayda, five of them from one family; Jordan's foreign minister expressed "deep regret". Syria reopened the Nassib crossing on 28 Oct, and the two foreign ministers agreed a joint security committee to investigate the strikes and coordinate on terrorist threats (Al Jazeera, 28 Oct; Arab News). In Lebanon, the Health Ministry count since 2 Mar is about 4,386 killed and 12,407 injured. Israeli forces hold ground about 10 km inside Lebanese territory (Anadolu, 27 Oct). An IFRC operation update lists about 329,700 people still internally displaced and about 877,200 returned (IFRC via ReliefWeb). In Suwayda, reporting describes drone attacks on Internal Security posts and the main road to Damascus cut (Levant24); see Gaps.

Indicators. LV-1 not scored (no ACLED pull; data gap). LV-2 ROUTINE (returns outpace new displacement; no weekly surge found). LV-3 ABNORMAL (Suwayda in armed standoff with the centre, road cut). LV-4 SIGNIFICANT (Jordanian strikes in Syria and Israeli strikes in Lebanon in the same week; Israeli forces holding ground). Roll-up: 1 Significant + 1 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (first scored line). No override.

Analyst Comment. Today's Levant risk is a set of foreign pressures more than internal fragmentation. Damascus and Amman closed their row within 48 hours, and that lowers near-term risk on the Jordanian border. A further Jordanian strike is unlikely before 30 Nov (about 30%, LEV-01). Lebanon stays the variable that could lift ME-T1's W-3. The cross-reference for the Karak church attack is the Orthodox WIRE.

II. EUROPE/RUSSIA: EU-T1 RUSSIAN AGGRESSION | POTENTIAL CRISIS

Strikes. Overnight into 28 Oct, Russia launched one Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missile, one Banderol cruise missile and 88 drones (38 jet-powered); air defences downed 71, with hits at eight locations. Strikes killed two people and injured 17 across Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Sumy over the past day (Kyiv Independent, 28 Oct; Ukrainska Pravda, 28 Oct).

Energy (RUS-14). Ukrenergo and the Energy Ministry reported Russian attacks on the night of 26–27 Oct that cut power in seven oblasts and hit Khmelnytskyi's energy sector (Ukrainska Pravda, 27 Oct). On 28 Oct the first deputy energy minister said consumers in Donetsk, Sumy and Kharkiv were without power because of Russian shelling of energy infrastructure (Delo, 28 Oct). That makes 15 distinct days (14–28 Oct); RUS-14 resolves as a hit.

Oleshky. The ombudsman said the first 30 hours passed "without a single incident"; the regional governor reported no strikes on infrastructure in Kherson region over the past day. The truce runs until 1 Nov (Kyiv Independent). No aid delivery or evacuation has been confirmed yet (RUS-15 open). AP reports Russia agreed to resume technical-level trilateral talks after 10 Nov (AP). That makes an in-person trilateral by 31 Oct (RUS-02) very unlikely and keeps RUS-13 (to 20 Nov) live.

Indicators. R-3 SIGNIFICANT (↓ within band; last >400 night inside the window). R-4 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-5 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-6 ABNORMAL (=). R-8 ABNORMAL (=). R-10 ABNORMAL (=; truce holding, talks dated after 10 Nov). R-1 ROUTINE (=). Roll-up: 3 Significant = POTENTIAL. Tripwires not met.

Analyst Comment. The quieter night follows a pattern: a heavy raid, then a lighter one. Energy pressure is steady, though, with outages for the 15th day in this window. The Oleshky carve-out is holding because neither side gains by breaking it before aid moves. The test is the 29–30 Oct convoy.

EU-T2 (European internal stability), brief. The Yellow Vests' "Act III" in Paris (Bastille to Concorde) is filed for 31 Oct. The CGT, CFDT, FO, UNSA and FSU have called a national strike and demonstrations for 5 Nov, with rail disruption likely (Le Parisien, 26 Oct). EI-1 SIGNIFICANT, EI-2 to EI-4 ABNORMAL (all =). ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

III. AMERICAS: AM-T1 US ELECTION INTEGRITY (MIDTERMS) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS

Process. NBC's tracker shows 35,351,107 mail and early in-person votes (16.8M mail, 18.5M in person) and 58.34M mail ballots requested or sent (NBC News, 28 Oct), up about 4.25M in a day.

Courts. The D.D.C. feed for the consolidated LULAC v. DHS (1:26-cv-03157) shows only a notice on 27 Oct (ECF 28) after the 23 Oct consolidation order, and no TRO or PI motion (CaseMagic docket feed). Government threat assessments are due today under the expedited-discovery order (Law&Crime). MID-06 resolves as a miss. MID-08 (motion by 3 Nov) and MID-05 (order by 3 Nov) stay open.

Indicators. M-1 SIGNIFICANT (=). M-2 ABNORMAL (=). M-7 ABNORMAL (=). M-3 to M-9 pending Election Day. Roll-up: 1 Significant + 2 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT.

Analyst Comment. With six days left, a motion would most likely follow today's threat-assessment production. Plaintiffs' silence so far suggests they may be relying on discovery and public disclosure rather than an injunction. This assessment takes no position on any party's prospects.

IV. INDO-PACIFIC

Taiwan Strait (IP-T1). Taiwan's MND reported 6 PLA aircraft sorties, 7 PLAN ships and 1 official ship in the 24 hours to 0600 on 28 Oct (MND). That is within the routine band. NO CRISIS (=).

Korean Peninsula (IP-T2). No DPRK ballistic launch since 12 Oct was found; the 14 Oct submarine-launched cruise missiles do not count toward IPA-01 (Yonhap, 15 Oct). ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

South China Sea (IP-T3). The Philippine Coast Guard escorted a fuel-aid mission to about 50 fishing boats near Scarborough Shoal on 27 Oct. Chinese coast guard and naval vessels were present but did not interfere (Philstar, 28 Oct; ABS-CBN). The Philippine armed forces counted 54 Chinese vessels in the West Philippine Sea over the past week (GMA). No water-cannon use since 8 Oct was found (IPA-02 open). ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

V. AFRICA

Sudan and the Horn (AF-T1). A drone strike hit a busy market in Nyala, South Darfur, on the evening of 26 Oct. MSF said 36 bodies arrived at its hospital and it saw about 150 wounded. The rights group Emergency Lawyers said more than 100 were killed and 113 injured and blamed the Sudanese military (AP via NBC News, 27 Oct). An earlier AFP count from a hospital medic was 21 killed (Al Jazeera, 27 Oct). A drone strike on the Al-Markhiyat substation left much of Khartoum without power for more than 12 hours (AP). AFR-01 needs a UN or Sudanese health-authority figure of 50 or more; none has been published, so it stays open. AF-1 SIGNIFICANT (↑ within band), AF-2 to AF-4 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

Sahel (AF-T2). No new official report of an attack killing 20 or more security personnel was found since 27 Oct. The Bamako fuel blockade continues under escorted convoys, and JNIM–Islamic State fighting continues in the tri-border area (Africanews, 16 Oct). SA-1 ROUTINE, SA-2 SIGNIFICANT, SA-3 SIGNIFICANT, SA-4 ROUTINE (all =). POTENTIAL CRISIS (=). AFR-02 open.

Analyst Comment. Nyala shows the trend the UN rights office has flagged: drone strikes are now the main killer of Sudanese civilians. The spread of the toll, from 21 to more than 100, is typical of RSF-held areas, where no health authority reports. AFR-01 may therefore hinge on whether the UN publishes a figure.

VI. INDICATORS TO WATCH | EWC / EWP ASSESSMENT

SCORE TYPE INDICATOR WHY IT MATTERS NEXT TRIGGER
EXTREME EWC W-1 Hormuz attacks / flows Kpler 48% of baseline (preliminary); 8 tanker crossings 26 Oct; Kpler sees escalation incentive sharpening Sinking (WAR-07); flows back above 70%
EXTREME EWP W-2 Houthi-Saudi / Bab el-Mandeb Two missiles over Riyadh; Ras Tanura claim; Jeddah and Yanbu alerts Confirmed Aramco damage (WAR-17); death on Saudi soil (WAR-16); Riyadh days (WAR-20, 1 of 5)
SIGNIFICANT EWP W-5 US forces WSJ: Gulf told to prepare for post-midterm campaign; Patriot, CSG and expeditionary unit flowing Any strike (WAR-05 to 3 Nov; WAR-23 4–30 Nov)
SIGNIFICANT EWP W-8 Diplomacy Gulf multipart deal; four-day reopening offer; inspector impasse Any US–Iran announcement (WAR-01)
SIGNIFICANT EWP W-6 Gulf-state belligerency Houthis call Egypt's mandate a declaration of war Saudi request; Egyptian deployment (WAR-10)
SIGNIFICANT EWP W-7 Energy price shock Brent $113.88 settle; $115.47 Wednesday Settle >$120 (WAR-08) or <$100 (WAR-11)
SIGNIFICANT EWC W-3 Lebanon front Daily strikes in the south; no Beirut strike since 4 Oct Dahiyeh strike
SIGNIFICANT EWC LV-4 Levant foreign strikes Jordanian strikes in Syria; Nassib reopened Further Jordanian strike (LEV-01)
SIGNIFICANT EWP R-3 Strikes on Ukraine 88 drones overnight; 15 energy-strike days >800 in one night (RUS-06)
SIGNIFICANT EWC AF-1 Sudan lethality Nyala market strike UN figure of 50+ (AFR-01)
SIGNIFICANT EWC SA-2/SA-3 Sahel Bamako blockade 20+ killed in one attack (AFR-02)
SIGNIFICANT EWC EI-1 French unrest Act III filed for 31 Oct 31 Oct march; 5 Nov strike
SIGNIFICANT EWC M-1 Federal posture on elections No motion by 27 Oct Threat assessments 28 Oct; MID-08
ABNORMAL EWC W-4 Iran-Israel exchange Caretaker government through coalition talks Any launch (WAR-04); Israeli strike (WAR-14)
ABNORMAL EWC LV-3 Syrian central control Suwayda standoff, road cut Loss of a provincial capital
ABNORMAL EWP R-10 Negotiation track Oleshky truce 30 hours clean; talks after 10 Nov Aid delivered (RUS-15)
ABNORMAL EWP SC-1 South China Sea Scarborough mission uneventful Water cannon (IPA-02)
ABNORMAL EWP K-1 DPRK launches None since 12 Oct Launch by 15 Nov (IPA-01)

VII. PREDICTION LEDGER CHECK (WI prefixes)

Resolved today: - WAR-21 (Kpler briefing dated 28 Oct–6 Nov shows Hormuz at or below 60% of baseline, 45%): HIT. The 28 Oct briefing shows 8,203 kbd, about 48% (Kpler). Brier 0.30. - RUS-14 (15 energy-strike days, 14–31 Oct, 75%): HIT. The 15th day was 28 Oct (Energy Ministry via Delo; 27 Oct via Ukrenergo/Ukrainska Pravda). Brier 0.06. - MID-06 (TRO/PI motion by 27 Oct, 50%): MISS. No motion in the D.D.C. feed through 27 Oct. Brier 0.25. - WAR-12 (Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs 19–27 Oct, 20%): MISS. None found. Brier 0.04.

Open WI calls due within 7 days (by 4 Nov): - RUS-02 (in-person trilateral by 31 Oct, 35%): talks set for after 10 Nov. Remote. - RUS-05 (Kremlin-confirmed energy-strike moratorium by 31 Oct, 20%): none. Remote. - RUS-06 (>800 in one night by 31 Oct, 30%): not met; last night 90. Very unlikely. - WAR-05 (US strike on Iranian soil 14 Oct–3 Nov, 10%): none; reported planning points after 3 Nov. Very unlikely. - WAR-14 (Israeli strike on Iranian soil 20 Oct–3 Nov, 15%): none. Very unlikely. - WAR-06 (US joins Saudi strikes on the Houthis by 3 Nov, 40%): none. Unlikely. - WAR-07 (another sinking near Hormuz by 3 Nov, 45%): disabling hit on 23 Oct, no sinking. Unlikely. - WAR-08 / WAR-11 (Brent settle >$120 / <$100 by 3 Nov): not met ($113.88). Unlikely / remote. - WAR-10 (Egyptian units in Saudi Arabia by 3 Nov, 25%): no request or deployment. Very unlikely. - WAR-13 (UK intercept over Saudi Arabia by 3 Nov, 50%): none reported. Unlikely. - WAR-15 (Hormuz at baseline by 3 Nov, 20%): 48%. Remote. - WAR-16 (death on Saudi soil by 3 Nov, 60%): none since 23 Oct; Riyadh debris caused damage only. Roughly even. - WAR-17 (confirmed Aramco damage by 3 Nov, 50%): Ras Tanura fire reported, Saudi confirmation absent. Roughly even. - MID-05 (court order by 3 Nov, 15%): no motion yet. Remote. - MID-08 (TRO/PI motion by 3 Nov, 45%): none yet. Unlikely.

Other open WI calls: WAR-22 (due 5 Nov) is very unlikely on the partial count (Likud 27, Yashar 21). WAR-20 stands at 1 of 5 days. WAR-19 no new airport halt. RUS-15 truce in force, convoy pending. IPA-01 / IPA-02, AFR-01 / AFR-02 no qualifying event. WAR-01 / 02 / 04, RUS-01 / 04 / 12 / 13, MID-01 / 02 / 03 no qualifying event.

New predictions (dated 2026-10-28): - WAR-23: The US conducts acknowledged strikes on Iranian territory between 4 and 30 Nov 2026 (DoD/CENTCOM/White House, or wire reports citing US officials). 45%, roughly even. Resolve by 2026-11-30. - WAR-24: Israel's President formally gives Benjamin Netanyahu the first mandate to form a government (President's Office or wire report), by 25 Nov. 55%, roughly even. Resolve by 2026-11-25. - LEV-01: Jordan conducts another acknowledged strike inside Syria between 29 Oct and 30 Nov (Jordanian statement, or wire reports citing Jordanian or Syrian officials). 30%, unlikely. Resolve by 2026-11-30.

VIII. GAPS AND UNVERIFIED

Sources

Kpler media briefing (28 Oct); UKMTO warning 182-26 (26 Oct); Dow Jones Data Talk via Morningstar (27 Oct); Reuters via Business Recorder (28 Oct); SPA (27 Oct); Arab News (27 Oct); AP (27 Oct); AFP via Straits Times (27 Oct); Anadolu (27 and 28 Oct); The Guardian (28 Oct); Iran International (24 Oct); Al Jazeera (26, 27 and 28 Oct); BBC (28 Oct); Ynet (28 Oct); Times of Israel (28 Oct); IFRC via ReliefWeb; Levant24; Kyiv Independent (28 Oct); Ukrainska Pravda (27 and 28 Oct); Delo (28 Oct); AP (Russia talks); Le Parisien (26 Oct); NBC News early-vote tracker (28 Oct); CaseMagic D.D.C. feed; Law&Crime; Taiwan MND (28 Oct); Yonhap (15 Oct); Philstar, ABS-CBN, GMA (28 Oct); AP via NBC News (27 Oct); Africanews (16 Oct).

WIRE World Instability | WIRE Desk | Open-source analysis. Not investment, legal or voting advice. UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE.

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