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UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE | Saturday, 7 November 2026 | Vol. 2026-311 | As of 070600 EST NOV 26

Baseline work today: the South China Sea (IP-T3) Statement of Normalcy is written below, and the topic is formally re-scored under it. Next in the rotation: GL-T2 (Health and Bio), then AF-T1. Comparisons are against the 6 Nov edition.

BLUF. The Middle East stays at PROBABLE CRISIS and the family trend turns back to ↑ after the US President confirmed new "minor strikes" on Iran's Qeshm Island. He spoke on the record on 6 Nov, hours after Iranian state media reported two missile impacts there. That is the first on-record US acknowledgment of a post-midterm strike on Iranian soil, so WAR-23 and WAR-30 both resolve as hits. A seafarer was killed aboard the tanker Velos Sapphire in the Gulf, UKMTO logged a new waterline explosion off Khasab, and the IRGC claims two more mine strikes. Brent was flat at $98.32. Talks continue through Qatar, and the President says there has been "a lot of progress." Russia fired 36 ballistic missiles at the Kyiv region three days before the Abu Dhabi talks, so Europe/Russia stays POTENTIAL (↑). Herzog names a prime minister-designate Sunday. Africa eases to ENVIRONMENT (↓) as the Sahel anchor event ages out. Global roll-up: PROBABLE CRISIS (↑).

0. WIRE World Instability Dashboard

Level changes since 6 Nov: AF-T2 POTENTIAL to ENVIRONMENT (SA-3 SIGNIFICANT to ROUTINE as the 23 Sep event leaves the 45-day window), which lowers the Africa region to ENVIRONMENT. No other topic changed level. Trend changes: Global and ME-T1 ↓ to ↑; EU-T1 = to ↑; EU-T2 ↑ to =; AM-T1 and IP-T1 ↓ to =. Trend key: ↑ toward crisis, ↓ away, = no net change.

Moved indicators (vs 6 November). SA-3 SIGNIFICANT → ROUTINE (the 23 Sep Niger toll of 57 leaves the 45-day window, and no newer official toll of 20+ security personnel was found). Within band: W-5 SIGNIFICANT ↑ (on-record presidential acknowledgment of strikes on Iranian territory; CENTCOM "finalizing preparations" for possible major operations, per Axios); W-1 EXTREME ↑ (first reported seafarer death of this cycle; new UKMTO explosion report); W-2 EXTREME (=; two ballistic missiles intercepted over Najran and a drone over the Mecca region on 6 Nov); W-8 SIGNIFICANT (=; Qatar mediation active, Iran keeps its conditions-first stance); R-3 SIGNIFICANT ↑ (36 ballistic missiles in one night); I-1 ABNORMAL (=; 3 → 11 sorties); SC-1 ABNORMAL (=; SoN written).

I. GLOBAL ROLL-UP (GL-T1) | PROBABLE CRISIS

The family level remains the Middle East's PROBABLE CRISIS, set by W-1 and W-2 at Extreme. The trend returns to ↑ for one reason: the US has moved from strikes reported only by unnamed officials to a strike its President acknowledged on the record. In the same 24 hours, CENTCOM put a $20 million Rewards for Justice offer on Iran's nuclear programme (CBS News live, 7 Nov). Russia ran one of its heaviest ballistic barrages of the autumn against Kyiv's power links to two nuclear plants. Offsetting signals: Brent did not react ($98.32), Qatar says mediation is alive, and Taiwan and Korea were quiet. Tripwires for Imminent are not met: W-5 needs 10+ US KIA in one event or ground operations in Iran; W-6 needs a Gulf state as belligerent at Extreme; R-4/R-6 are not at Extreme.

Analyst Comment. The two main theatres show the same pattern: limited, deniable-scale force applied while talks are scheduled. The risk is not the size of any one strike. It is that both campaigns now run on an explicit "decide soon" clock: the President's "you'll know soon enough" for Iran, and the Abu Dhabi round for Ukraine on 10–11 Nov.

II. MIDDLE EAST: ME-T1 WIDESPREAD WAR (ISRAEL-ORIGINATED) | PROBABLE CRISIS

Qeshm: acknowledged on the record. Iranian state media reported two missile strikes in the Suza area of Qeshm Island on 6 Nov. Speaking to reporters in West Palm Beach that day, President Trump said US forces had carried out "minor strikes": "they built a little bit of an anti-aircraft device, and we knocked it out in about 15 minutes, maybe five" (Al Jazeera / AP, 7 Nov; CBS News live, 7 Nov). CENTCOM called the area "relatively calm" and declined further comment (Al Jazeera). Iran's military said its air defences destroyed a US MQ-9 over Qeshm, and the IRGC separately claimed an MQ-1 (CBS); both are party claims. This meets WAR-30 (on-record White House acknowledgment, dated 4–17 Nov, of a strike on Iranian territory on or after 1 Nov) and WAR-23 (acknowledged US strike on Iranian soil dated 4–30 Nov). Both resolve as hits.

Decision clock and posture. On 5 Nov, after his first post-election national security meeting on Iran, the President said "I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I will have to. You'll know soon enough" (Times of Israel; Axios, 5 Nov). Axios, citing a US official, reports that CENTCOM is finalizing preparations to resume major combat operations but has received no new directive. It also reports that USS Theodore Roosevelt began a Singapore port call on 6 Nov and will not reach CENTCOM's area before mid-November; a third carrier would be a signal of renewed major strikes (new WAR-32). On 6 Nov he also said "We've made a lot of progress with Iran" and "They want to make a deal" (Al Jazeera).

Diplomacy. Axios describes a Qatari draft for a two-day confidence sequence. On day one, the US would lift the naval blockade and release some frozen funds, and Iran would invite IAEA inspectors to bombed sites. On day two, Hormuz would reopen, and nuclear talks would then resume. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran will discuss its nuclear proposal only after the US meets its seven August demands (via Times of Israel). Qatar's emir spoke with the President by phone on 6 Nov. On 7 Nov, Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman rejected reports that the talks had failed, saying such claims serve "only those seeking to prolong the war" (Al Jazeera). SNSC secretary Mohsen Rezaei met President Putin in Moscow on 5 Nov and delivered a message from the Supreme Leader (CBS; Iran International). Moscow advised Russian citizens not to visit Iran, citing the risk of a new escalation (CBS live, 6 Nov). No in-person US–Iran meeting has been confirmed (WAR-27 open, due 15 Nov).

Hormuz and tanker attacks. The Greek manager Velos Tankers said a seafarer was found fatally injured on the Marshall Islands-flagged Velos Sapphire. The tanker was sailing empty toward Bahrain when an unidentified projectile, likely the cause of the blast, struck it on 5 Nov (Middle East Eye, 6 Nov; CBS citing Reuters). UKMTO reported a separate explosion at a tanker's port-side waterline 16 nm east of Khasab, Oman. The crew were safe and the vessel continued (Arab News / Reuters, 6 Nov). The IRGC navy said two more "violating" tankers struck mines and caught fire after switching off their transponders. Maritime officials have not confirmed this (Iran International, 6 Nov; Arab News / AFP). UKMTO counted at least 30 attacks on commercial vessels in the region in October, a record (CBS). No Kpler briefing newer than 3 Nov (45%) was retrieved; WAR-26 (under 40% by 13 Nov) stays open.

Prices. ICE Brent (January) settled at $98.32 on 6 Nov, up 3 cents. That is a weekly fall of about 17%, the steepest weekly percentage drop since the start of the pandemic in LSEG data. WTI settled at $90.83 (Reuters via Euronext, 6 Nov; Xinhua; CNBC). W-7 stays ABNORMAL ($85–100). WAR-31 (above $105 by 20 Nov) stays open.

Houthi–Saudi front. The coalition said it intercepted two Houthi ballistic missiles fired at Najran, with debris and a damage assessment under way, and a drone over the Mecca region on 6 Nov (CBS citing coalition spokesman Turki al-Malki). The Houthis say a Saudi strike on the al-Hadara market in Taiz governorate killed 30. The government camp blames the Houthis; the toll is a party figure (L'Orient Today, 6 Nov). Yemen's interior minister alleged that 14 IRGC members and seven Hezbollah experts help run Houthi operations, which Iran and Hezbollah deny (Iran International). No new suspension at Riyadh's King Khalid airport was found (WAR-19 open, due 15 Nov).

Israel mandate. Consultations ended with 67 recommendations for Gadi Eisenkot and 46 for Benjamin Netanyahu. United Torah Judaism recommended neither, and Herzog will task a candidate on Sunday, 8 Nov (Al Jazeera, 7 Nov; Ynet). Eisenkot has ruled out governing with the Arab-led parties (19 seats). Adding UTJ and Shas to his Jewish-led bloc would give exactly 61, but Shas endorsed Netanyahu (Al Jazeera). On 6 Nov Eisenkot urged Herzog to give him the mandate, citing "significant" progress in talks (L'Orient Today). WAR-28 stays about 75%.

Indicators. W-1 EXTREME (↑ within band; fatality, UKMTO explosion, IRGC mine claims). W-2 EXTREME (=; Najran and Mecca-region intercepts). W-3 SIGNIFICANT (=). W-4 ABNORMAL (=). W-5 SIGNIFICANT (↑ within band; acknowledged strike on Iranian territory, no US KIA reported). W-6 SIGNIFICANT (=). W-7 ABNORMAL (=; $98.32). W-8 SIGNIFICANT (=; conditions-first stances, active mediation). Roll-up: 2 Extreme + 4 Significant + 2 Abnormal = PROBABLE. Tripwires not met. Trend ↑. Acknowledged force on Iranian soil, a seafarer's death and stated CENTCOM preparations outweigh a flat oil price and continued mediation.

Analyst Comment. The President's description ("minor," "15 minutes, maybe five") frames Qeshm as maintenance of air superiority over the Strait, not the start of a campaign. That is consistent with continued coercion alongside the Qatari two-day sequence, and Iran again answered with claims, not retaliation on Gulf or US targets. We assess with moderate confidence that a resumption of major US combat operations against Iran before 30 Nov is unlikely (about 25–30%). The clearest leading signal would be a third carrier in the AOR from mid-November.

ME-T2 (Levant), brief. No Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs was found (LEV-02 open). Yedioth Ahronoth, as relayed by L'Orient Today, reports that the IDF is refining plans for a possible resumption of hostilities with Hezbollah if a large Israeli–US operation against Iran occurs. Israeli troop movements near the buffer zone continue, and Lebanese and Israeli forces had a standoff at Zawtar Gharbieh on 5 Nov (L'Orient Today; Al Jazeera, 6 Nov). LV-4 SIGNIFICANT, LV-3 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

III. EUROPE/RUSSIA: EU-T1 RUSSIAN AGGRESSION | POTENTIAL CRISIS

Kyiv barrage. On the night of 6–7 Nov, Russia launched 172 drones and 36 ballistic missiles, with all the missiles aimed at Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, President Zelensky said. Strikes hit the substations that connect the Rivne and Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plants to Kyiv and central Ukraine, and substations in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. The Pivnichnyi Bridge was damaged and closed, a kindergarten was partly destroyed, and nine people, including a child, were injured (Ukrainska Pravda, 7 Nov; Ukrinform). By 09:00 the Air Force reported 149 drones and four missiles shot down or suppressed (Ukrinform). The previous night (5–6 Nov) it had counted 227 drones, 196 neutralised and 14 impact sites (Ukrainska Pravda, 6 Nov). The 208-weapon total is well short of the 500 bar for RUS-16 (due 15 Nov).

Talks. The 10–11 Nov Abu Dhabi working-level trilateral remains on the calendar, with Witkoff and Kushner for the US and Medinsky for Russia (Reuters, 2 Nov; Jerusalem Post). Zelensky called on the US Congress to back Ukraine and tighten sanctions (Ukrainska Pravda). RUS-13 stays about 80%; RUS-17 (named follow-on date) stays at 45%.

Indicators. R-3 SIGNIFICANT (↑ within band; 36 ballistic missiles in one night, grid links to two nuclear plants hit). R-4 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-5 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-6 / R-8 / R-10 ABNORMAL (=). R-1 ROUTINE. Roll-up: 3 Significant = POTENTIAL. Trend ↑: a heavy ballistic salvo against energy and nuclear-plant links on the eve of talks.

Analyst Comment. Striking the transmission links of operating nuclear plants raises nuclear-safety risk without touching the plants themselves. It is also a familiar pre-talks pattern of maximizing leverage. A repeat barrage of this size before 25 Nov is unlikely (30%; new RUS-18).

EU-T2 (European internal stability). After the 5 Nov mobilisation (575,000 by the interior ministry's count), the intersyndicale says it will decide on next steps after Prime Minister Lecornu's social conference on Monday, 9 Nov. The government is floating a net minimum wage above €1,500 a month, and unions are seeking more (France 24, 6 Nov; franceinfo). Secretary Rubio attends G7 foreign ministers in Paris on 9–10 Nov (CBS). EI-1 SIGNIFICANT, EI-2 ABNORMAL, EI-3 SIGNIFICANT, EI-4 ROUTINE. POTENTIAL CRISIS (=). New EUR-03 tracks a further national strike day.

IV. AMERICAS: AM-T1 US ELECTION INTEGRITY (MIDTERMS) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS

Count and certification. Democratic control of both chambers was called by AP on 3–4 Nov (MID-01/02 hits, resolved 6 Nov). The Alaska and Mississippi Senate races remain uncalled. Mississippi provisional ballots are pending, and Alaska is counting under its ranked-choice timeline (AP uncalled races; Al Jazeera, 5 Nov). A federal docket, United States v. State of Alaska (26-7304), is open on CourtListener (docket). Its relation to certification is carried under Gaps until read directly. State certification deadlines run from mid-November into December (Ballotpedia). No county or state refusal to certify a federal race was found (MID-03 open). No new filing seeking to halt certification of a called race was verified (MID-09 open). After the election, the President said it was "largely true" that the war contributed to his party's losses (Iran International, 6 Nov). This desk takes no position on any party's programme; it scores process and institutional risk only.

Indicators. M-1 ABNORMAL (=). M-2 ABNORMAL (=). M-3 ROUTINE. M-4 ROUTINE (low conf.). M-5 ROUTINE (canvass pending). M-6 ROUTINE. M-7 ABNORMAL (=). M-8 ROUTINE. M-9 ROUTINE (pending 3 Jan). Roll-up: 3 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT. Trend =.

AM-T2 (hemispheric security), brief. SOUTHCOM's press-release page still shows 27 Oct as its latest "Lethal Kinetic Strike" release (SOUTHCOM). A third-party timeline lists November strikes, including dates after today; it is treated as unreliable for dating and excluded (see Gaps). AMR-01 stays at 0 of 3 verified. H-1 ABNORMAL, H-2 ROUTINE, H-3 ABNORMAL, H-4 ROUTINE. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

V. INDO-PACIFIC

Taiwan Strait (IP-T1). Taiwan MND reported 11 PLA aircraft sorties for the 24 hours to 06:00 on 7 Nov, nine of them crossing the median line into the northern and southwestern ADIZ, plus PLA ships (MND; CNA). That is up from 3 the day before, well under the 49 peak. No "joint combat readiness patrol" (IPA-04 open), no 45+ day (IPA-05 open). I-1 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

Korean Peninsula (IP-T2). No new JCS launch notice after the 4 Nov multi-missile salvo from Sondok was found (Yonhap). K-1 ABNORMAL, K-2 ROUTINE, K-3 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

South China Sea (IP-T3). See Baseline work below. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

Baseline work: Statement of Normalcy, IP-T3 South China Sea

SUBJECT: South China Sea (focus: PRC-Philippines incidents at Second Thomas, Scarborough and Sabina shoals; PLA/CCG posture; alliance signalling) Normal for this theatre since 2023 is persistent China Coast Guard and maritime militia presence at Scarborough and around Second Thomas Shoal; periodic blocking, shadowing and water-cannon use against Philippine government vessels (several incidents a year); resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre that usually complete; hostile statements from both capitals; no deaths and no invocation of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. SC-1 Coercive incidents vs Philippine government vessels (Military; L): PCG, AFP or National Maritime Council releases. ROUTINE blocking/shadowing only; ABNORMAL water cannon, ramming or a collision in the last 45 days, or PLA "combat readiness patrols" at a contested feature; SIGNIFICANT injuries to Philippine personnel or the seizure/boarding of a government vessel or crew; EXTREME use of lethal force, a death, or an MDT Article IV invocation. SC-2 Presence and posture (Military; L): ROUTINE CCG/militia presence at baseline; ABNORMAL a PLA navy warship inside 12 nm of Scarborough or new survey/support craft inside a lagoon; SIGNIFICANT a declared PRC exclusion/blockade zone or a sustained blockade of a resupply mission; EXTREME construction or reclamation begun at Scarborough. SC-3 Diplomatic / legal track (Political; L): ROUTINE protests and summons; ABNORMAL suspension of a bilateral mechanism or a new PRC administrative designation of a feature; SIGNIFICANT recall of an ambassador or a formal MDT consultation; EXTREME severed relations. Baseline sources / period reviewed: PCG spokesperson releases, PLA Southern Theater Command and CCG statements via Reuters/CNA, AMTI, Manila Times, Defense Post; 2024 to early Nov 2026 open reporting. Current reading. SC-1: the PLA Southern Theater Command said its naval and air forces ran combat-readiness patrols in the territorial sea and airspace around Scarborough on 30 Oct and had strengthened such patrols since early October. The CCG patrolled the same day (Defense Post, 3 Nov; Reuters via CNA, 30 Oct). The last verified water-cannon use against a Philippine government vessel was 8 Oct at Second Thomas Shoal, within 45 days. ABNORMAL. SC-2: the PCG is investigating a Chinese craft inside the Scarborough lagoon carrying unidentified sensor equipment that might support underwater work. A 29 Oct flight tracked three CCG ships, five militia vessels and a PLA navy warship in the area (Defense Post). ABNORMAL. SC-3: protests and statements only; ROUTINE.

Indicators. SC-1 ABNORMAL, SC-2 ABNORMAL, SC-3 ROUTINE. Roll-up: 2 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS. No override. Trend =. IPA-02 (water cannon by 30 Nov, 60%) stays open; an undated Manila Times page describing water-cannon use at Scarborough is excluded until dated.

Analyst Comment. The Scarborough picture is posture-heavy and incident-light: PLA readiness patrols and a lagoon support craft, but no new water cannon in a month. That fits a deliberate shift from coast-guard coercion to military presence, which raises the cost of any future Philippine resupply or fuel-aid mission.

VI. AFRICA

Sahel (AF-T2). The 23 Sep Niger attacks (57 security personnel killed) leave the SA-3 45-day window today. No newer official or wire toll of 20+ security personnel in one attack was found. The latest weekly compilation (27 Oct–2 Nov) lists JNIM claims on Burkina posts and sieges in central Mali, but no qualifying official toll (Darkwater Sahel sitrep, 3 Nov, secondary). The JNIM pressure on Bamako's fuel supply continues to be reported (same source; Soufan Center, 28 Oct). Algerian forces reached Arlit around 30 Oct by convoy, but no fixed-site basing is officially confirmed (AFR-03 open). SA-1 ROUTINE, SA-2 SIGNIFICANT, SA-3 ROUTINE (↓ step), SA-4 ABNORMAL. Roll-up: 1 Significant + 1 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (↓). No override: the step is mechanical, and a single new 20+ attack (AFR-02, 60%) would restore SA-3 to Abnormal at once.

Sudan and the Horn (AF-T1). An RSF drone struck a crowded fuel queue at the Nawafil station in Taqali al-Abbasiya, South Kordofan, on 6 Nov, killing at least 19 civilians (Darfur24, 6 Nov). The UN has warned about the drone campaign against power, water and fuel sites (UN News; Dabanga). Still no UN-reported single event of 50+ in the window (AFR-01 open). AF-1 SIGNIFICANT, AF-2/3/4 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

VII. INDICATORS TO WATCH | EWC / EWP ASSESSMENT

VIII. PREDICTIONS

Resolved today: - WAR-30 — HIT. The President acknowledged on the record (6 Nov) US "minor strikes" on an Iranian air-defence system on Qeshm Island (Al Jazeera / AP). Forecast 40%; Brier 0.36. - WAR-23 — HIT. Acknowledged US strike on Iranian soil dated 6 Nov, inside the 4–30 Nov window (CBS News). Forecast 45%; Brier 0.3025.

PREDICTION LEDGER CHECK (WI prefixes): open calls due within 7 days (by 14 Nov). - WAR-28 (Eisenkot first mandate by 11 Nov, 70% logged; desk ~75%): Herzog announces Sunday 8 Nov. Open, on track. - WAR-26 (Kpler Hormuz under 40% by 13 Nov, 35% logged): no Kpler print since 3 Nov (45%). Open; data gap. - No other WI call is due by 14 Nov. Next: WAR-19, WAR-27, RUS-16 (15 Nov); WAR-30 now closed.

Other open (selected): WAR-01/02/04/24/25/29/31, RUS-01/04/12/13/17, LEV-01/02, EUR-01, IPA-02/04/05, AFR-01/02/03, AMR-01 (0 of 3), MID-03, MID-09.

New predictions (dated 2026-11-07): - WAR-32: A third US carrier strike group is reported operating in the CENTCOM area (Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea or Gulf) between 7 and 30 Nov 2026, per USNI News Fleet Tracker, DoD/Navy/CENTCOM, or Reuters/AP/AFP citing US officials. 55%, roughly even. Resolve by 2026-11-30. - RUS-18: Ukraine's Air Force reports one overnight Russian attack that includes 30 or more ballistic missiles, dated 8–25 Nov 2026. 30%, unlikely. Resolve by 2026-11-25. - EUR-03: The French intersyndicale (or the CGT jointly with another national confederation) announces a new national strike or mobilisation day, with the announcement dated 9–20 Nov 2026. 55%, roughly even. Resolve by 2026-11-20.

IX. GAPS AND UNVERIFIED

• Qeshm 6 Nov: strike scale and damage are unknown. The Iranian claims of MQ-9 and MQ-1 shoot-downs are unverified party claims, and CENTCOM declined comment.
• CENTCOM preparations and the Qatari two-day draft rest on Axios and on officials not named in public; the NYT "poised forces" brief (4–5 Nov) is also unnamed.
• IRGC mine claims (five tankers and a tug on 5 Nov; two tankers on 6 Nov) are unconfirmed by maritime officials. Whether the UKMTO Khasab report is one of them is unclear.
• Taiz market toll (30) comes from Houthi health authorities, and attribution is contested between the parties.
• Kpler: no briefing newer than 3 Nov was retrieved.
• Alaska docket 26-7304: not read directly. A secondary summary describes a DOJ certification suit dismissed and appealed to the Ninth Circuit; it is not counted toward MID-09 because the race is uncalled and the filing predates the window.
• SOUTHCOM: a third-party timeline lists November strikes on 1, 4 and 6 Nov and on later dates. It is excluded until matched by SOUTHCOM releases.
• Bamako blockade: the current status rests on secondary compilations, with no dated primary release in the last week.
• Undated Manila Times water-cannon page is excluded from IPA-02.
• Iranian civilian vessels loitering over Hormuz subsea cables (Windward via FT, relayed by Iran International) are cross-referenced to the Technology & Cyber WIRE and not scored here.
• Rates/mortgage detail is in the owner-only private note (cross-ref Economics WIRE).

Sources

All sources are linked inline. Primary and data sources: on-record presidential remarks (via AP / Al Jazeera, CBS), UKMTO (via Reuters / Arab News), IRGC statements (via AFP / Iran International), ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI settles (Reuters via Euronext, Xinhua, CNBC), Ukrainian Air Force and Presidential statements (Ukrainska Pravda, Ukrinform), Taiwan MND PLA activity report (7 Nov), ROK JCS via Yonhap, SOUTHCOM press releases, Ballotpedia and CourtListener, President of Israel statements (via Ynet / Al Jazeera), PLA Southern Theater Command and PCG statements (via Defense Post / CNA). Reporting: Axios, Times of Israel, Middle East Eye, L'Orient Today, France 24, franceinfo, Jerusalem Post, Reuters, Darfur24, Dabanga, UN News, Soufan Center, Darkwater (secondary).

WIRE World Instability | WIRE Desk | Open-source analysis. Not investment, legal or voting advice. UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE.

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