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UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE | Sunday, 8 November 2026 | Vol. 2026-312 | As of 080600 EST NOV 26

Baseline work today: the Health and Bio (GL-T2) Statement of Normalcy is written below, and the topic is formally scored under it. Next in the rotation: AF-T1 (Sudan and the Horn). Comparisons are against the 7 Nov edition.

BLUF. The Middle East stays at PROBABLE CRISIS and the family trend returns to no net change after yesterday's jump. President Herzog's office said on Saturday that it intends to task Gadi Eisenkot with forming Israel's next government, with the formal ceremony set for Sunday in Jerusalem, so WAR-28 remains open but on track. In Riyadh, intercept debris damaged Saudi Aramco's administrative tower in the King Abdullah Financial District after the coalition said it destroyed Houthi missiles aimed at the capital; the Energy Ministry reported limited damage and no casualties, and King Khalid International Airport was not reported closed (WAR-19 open). CENTCOM said it disabled the St Kitts-flagged cargo ship M/V Huda in the Gulf of Oman on 7 November for attempting to break the Iran blockade, and created Task Force Iron Gate in Tampa to target land and Caspian routes. Iranian state media reported unexplained explosions on Qeshm and at Jask on Saturday evening; the IRGC again claimed two tankers hit mines. Neither is independently confirmed. Russia attacked Ukraine overnight with three cruise missiles and 164 drones, well below the 500-weapon bar and without a 30-missile ballistic salvo. Brent last settled at $98.32 on Friday; markets are closed. Global roll-up: PROBABLE CRISIS (=).

0. WIRE World Instability Dashboard

Level changes since 7 Nov: none among previously scored topics. GL-T2 is scored for the first time, at ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS, and does not change the family level. Trend changes: Global and ME-T1 ↑ to =; EU-T1 ↑ to =. Trend key: ↑ toward crisis, ↓ away, = no net change.

Moved indicators (vs 7 November). Within band: W-2 EXTREME ↑ (intercept debris damaged Aramco's Riyadh administrative tower; Eastern Province alerts lifted with no reported damage there); W-1 EXTREME (=; IRGC again claims two mined tankers, still unconfirmed); W-5 SIGNIFICANT (=; Huda disable is blockade enforcement, not a new strike on Iranian soil; Iron Gate is a staff cell, not a new ground campaign); W-8 SIGNIFICANT (=; Qatar's proposals under review; no in-person US–Iran meeting); W-4 ABNORMAL (=; IRGC says the 2,000 km range cap has been lifted, without demonstrating a longer-range shot); R-3 SIGNIFICANT (=; the 6–7 Nov 36-missile night still governs; last night was drones and cruise missiles); I-1 ABNORMAL (=; 11 → 4 sorties); HB-1 / HB-2 / HB-3 / HB-4 first scored (all ABNORMAL).

I. GLOBAL ROLL-UP (GL-T1) | PROBABLE CRISIS

The family level remains the Middle East's PROBABLE CRISIS, set by W-1 and W-2 at Extreme. The trend settles back to = because today's new facts intensify fronts that were already Extreme rather than opening a new one. The clearest military development is on the Houthi–Saudi axis: debris from intercepted missiles damaged a landmark Aramco building in the capital. The US widened economic-warfare pressure by disabling another blockade runner and creating a cell to target Iran's land and Caspian routes, and it did both openly. Offsetting signals: no new on-record US strike on Iranian territory, Qatar's channel is still open, last night's attack on Ukraine did not repeat Friday night's ballistic salvo, and Taiwan sortie counts fell. Tripwires for Imminent are not met: W-5 still needs 10+ US killed in one event or ground operations in Iran; W-6 needs a Gulf state as a belligerent at Extreme; R-4/R-6 are not at Extreme.

GL-T2 (Health and Bio) is scored for the first time at ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS. The Bundibugyo-virus PHEIC declared on 17 May remains in force, but WHO still assesses global risk as low and there is no documented human-to-human H5 spread (see Baseline work).

Analyst Comment. Two clocks are now running in parallel: Herzog's mandate ceremony later today, which starts Eisenkot's 28-day coalition window, and the 10–11 Nov Abu Dhabi talks on Ukraine. Neither requires a pretext. The risk that matters for the family level is still an acknowledged return to major combat against Iran, or a Houthi strike that kills people in Riyadh or shuts an energy facility.

II. MIDDLE EAST: ME-T1 WIDESPREAD WAR (ISRAEL-ORIGINATED) | PROBABLE CRISIS

Israel mandate. Herzog's office said on Saturday night that he had informed Eisenkot "of his intention to task him with forming a government," and that the formal appointment would take place at a ceremony on Sunday at the President's Residence in Jerusalem (Guardian / agencies, 7 Nov; Axios, 7 Nov). Reporting timed to early Sunday said the ceremony was set for 17:00 Israel time (israel.com, relaying Times of Israel). Eisenkot received 67 recommendations to Netanyahu's 46; United Torah Judaism (7 seats) recommended no one. Eisenkot called for a "national emergency government." Netanyahu, still caretaker prime minister, proposed a unity government headed by himself and attacked the Arab-led parties that recommended Eisenkot (Axios; Guardian). Because the formal assignment has not yet occurred as of this edition's cutoff, WAR-28 stays open, on track. WAR-24 (first mandate to Netanyahu) also stays open; it would miss if Eisenkot is formally tasked.

Riyadh and the Houthi–Saudi front. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said an Aramco administrative building in Riyadh was damaged by falling debris after an attempted attack on Sunday, with no injuries or deaths. A Reuters witness saw blown-out windows across several floors of the Aramco Tower in the King Abdullah Financial District (CNBC / Reuters, 8 Nov; Ynet / Reuters). The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted missiles fired by Yemen's Houthis toward Riyadh and later said it destroyed two cruise missiles over Riyadh and the south. Civil Defense issued and then lifted alerts in the Eastern Province, including Dhahran; no damage was reported there. The Energy Ministry described the Riyadh damage as limited. There was no immediate Houthi statement, and no report that King Khalid International Airport halted operations (WAR-19 open, due 15 Nov). The Houthi-run health ministry said Saudi strikes near Sanaa the previous day killed at least 33 people; Saudi authorities said they were investigating (CNBC / Reuters). W-2 stays EXTREME and rises within the band: this is the first verified damage to a landmark civilian/energy building inside Riyadh since the 10 Oct airport attack.

Blockade enforcement. CENTCOM said that on 7 November its forces disabled the St Kitts-flagged cargo ship M/V Huda in the Gulf of Oman after the civilian crew ignored repeated warnings and tried to leave the region after visiting an Iranian port. An aircraft fired precision munitions at the ship's stern after the crew was told to leave the targeted spaces. CENTCOM said enforcement since July has redirected 147 commercial vessels that complied and disabled five merchant ships that did not, and that US forces had previously destroyed another 10 Iranian commercial oil tankers tied to what it called the IRGC's shadow network (CENTCOM, 7 Nov).

Task Force Iron Gate. On 7 November the CENTCOM commander directed the creation of Task Force Iron Gate, described as an internal staff of about 20 civilian and military personnel based in Tampa, to coordinate with other US agencies on stopping the movement of advanced weapons, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials and illegal revenue across Iran's land borders and the Caspian Sea. CENTCOM said the naval blockade has prevented Iran from exporting more than $25 billion in crude oil in recent months (CENTCOM, 7 Nov). This is institutional widening of the blockade, not a reported ground operation inside Iran.

Qeshm, Jask and tankers. Iranian state television reported explosions on Saturday evening on Qeshm Island and in Jask, Sirik and Bandar Abbas. Tasnim first said the Qeshm blasts were not missile strikes, then reported two missiles striking the island; Iranian officials did not confirm US strikes (ABC / AP, 8 Nov; NDTV). The US has neither confirmed nor denied a new strike. The IRGC said on Sunday that two oil tankers on an "unauthorised route" hit mines and caught fire (ABC / AP). No names, flags or casualties were given, and maritime officials have not confirmed the claim. No Kpler briefing newer than 3 Nov (45% of the pre-war baseline) was retrieved; WAR-26 (under 40% by 13 Nov) and WAR-29 stay open.

Missile-range announcement. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said on Saturday that a self-imposed 2,000 km ballistic-missile range limit "has been lifted," pointing to a directive from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to respond to threats with "no geographical limits." He did not say Iran had developed or fielded missiles beyond that range, only that capabilities should be shown in practice. An IRGC Aerospace Force adviser, Ali Bilali, said the same day that Iran's missiles had a range of about 2,000 km (Iran International, 7 Nov). W-4 stays ABNORMAL.

Diplomacy and prices. The Associated Press, via ABC, reported that Iran is reviewing Qatari proposals on the nuclear file, while Iranian officials still refuse to negotiate that file until Washington meets conditions first. The President's 6 Nov "minor strikes" remarks and his call with Qatar's emir remain the latest on-record US comments. No in-person US–Iran meeting has been confirmed (WAR-27 open, due 15 Nov). ICE Brent (January) last settled at $98.32 on Friday 6 Nov; WTI settled at $90.83. Oil markets are closed for the weekend (Xinhua). W-7 stays ABNORMAL. WAR-31 (above $105 by 20 Nov) stays open. WAR-32 (third carrier in the CENTCOM area by 30 Nov) stays open; no new fleet-tracker update was found placing USS Theodore Roosevelt west of Singapore.

Indicators. W-1 EXTREME (=; unconfirmed IRGC mine claims continue; Huda is a blockade action, not a Hormuz tanker attack). W-2 EXTREME (↑ within band; verified capital damage, no deaths). W-3 SIGNIFICANT (=). W-4 ABNORMAL (=). W-5 SIGNIFICANT (=; blockade enforcement and a Tampa staff cell, no US killed and no ground operations in Iran). W-6 SIGNIFICANT (=). W-7 ABNORMAL (=; $98.32, last settle). W-8 SIGNIFICANT (=; conditions-first stance, active mediation). Roll-up: 2 Extreme + 4 Significant + 2 Abnormal = PROBABLE. Tripwires not met. Trend =. Riyadh damage and Iron Gate keep pressure high but do not outrun yesterday's already-elevated baseline.

Analyst Comment. Disabling Huda and standing up Iron Gate are the behaviour of a government that is tightening a blockade in public, not searching for a hidden pretext. The Riyadh tower damage shows that intercepts over the capital still throw debris into dense districts; a future salvo that kills people or stops an export facility would be the next step on W-2. We assess with moderate confidence that a resumption of major US combat operations against Iran before 30 Nov remains unlikely (about 25–30%). The leading signals are unchanged: a third carrier in the area (WAR-32) or an on-record order for a larger campaign.

ME-T2 (Levant), brief. No verified Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs was found in reputable reporting (LEV-02 open). Lower-tier accounts of strikes on Beirut are treated as unverified (see Gaps). LV-4 SIGNIFICANT, LV-3 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

III. EUROPE/RUSSIA: EU-T1 RUSSIAN AGGRESSION | POTENTIAL CRISIS

Overnight attack. Ukraine's Air Force said that on the night of 7–8 November Russia launched three Kh-59/69 guided missiles from the Sea of Azov and 164 strike and decoy drones, including 112 jet-powered Shahed-type drones. As of 08:00 Kyiv time, air defences had shot down or suppressed 137 drones. Impacts were recorded at 23 locations. One person was killed in Odesa. More than 600,000 customers lost power in Dnipropetrovsk region, and about 37,000 in the Chernihiv district (RBC-Ukraine, 8 Nov; Kyiv Post). The 167-weapon total is well short of the 500 bar for RUS-16 (due 15 Nov). The three missiles were air-launched cruise missiles, not ballistic missiles, so RUS-18 (30 or more ballistic missiles on a night dated 8–25 Nov) is not met.

Talks. President Zelensky said Russia was intensifying strikes to pressure Kyiv ahead of talks, and described the 6–7 Nov barrage (172 drones and 36 ballistic missiles, including missiles he said were North Korean KN-23s) in those terms (Guardian, 8 Nov). The 10–11 Nov Abu Dhabi working-level trilateral remains on the calendar. RUS-13 stays about 80%; RUS-17 stays at 45%.

Indicators. R-3 SIGNIFICANT (=; Friday night's 36 ballistic missiles still sit inside the recent window; last night was heavy but not a ballistic repeat). R-4 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-5 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-6 / R-8 / R-10 ABNORMAL (=). R-1 ROUTINE. Roll-up: 3 Significant = POTENTIAL. Trend =: one ballistic surge does not become a new baseline after a single quieter night, and it does not, by itself, justify another upward tick.

Analyst Comment. The pattern is familiar: a showcase ballistic night, then a large drone raid, timed to talks. A repeat 30-missile ballistic salvo before 25 Nov remains unlikely (30%; RUS-18).

EU-T2 (European internal stability). The intersyndicale still plans to decide on further action after Prime Minister Lecornu's social conference on Monday, 9 Nov (BFMTV, 8 Nov; Le Figaro, 6 Nov). A separate education-sector intersyndicale had already called action for 10 Nov; that pre-window announcement does not resolve EUR-03 (a new national strike day announced 9–20 Nov by the intersyndicale or by the CGT with another national confederation). EI-1 SIGNIFICANT, EI-2 ABNORMAL, EI-3 SIGNIFICANT, EI-4 ROUTINE. POTENTIAL CRISIS (=).

IV. AMERICAS: AM-T1 US ELECTION INTEGRITY (MIDTERMS) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS

Count and legal track. Democratic control of both chambers was called on 3–4 Nov. The Alaska and Mississippi Senate races remain uncalled and will not change control (USA Today, citing AP, puts the called Senate at 54–44 pending these two). In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom leads Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by about 2,500 votes. Voters have until 10 Nov to resolve problems with affidavit (provisional) ballots. Hyde-Smith's campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have asked all 82 counties to set those ballots aside and preserve them. The state party's chair said more than 50 volunteer lawyers had been sent to counting sites and that "there's no election denying going on here." Colom's campaign says pulling aside ballots already processed would itself violate state law (USA Today, 7 Nov). In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan by 637 votes with about three-quarters of ballots counted. Absentee ballots may arrive through 18 Nov, the day the state expects to run ranked-choice tabulation. A pre-election Justice Department suit seeking to block certification if the incumbent lost was dismissed two days before 3 Nov; the department has said it will appeal. On 6 Nov, Peltola's supporting group sued for the names of voters whose absentee ballots have been rejected; the state has refused, citing confidentiality (USA Today / Reuters). Neither filing is a suit to halt certification of a called race, so MID-09 stays open. No county or state has refused to certify a federal race (MID-03 open). This desk takes no position on any party's programme; it scores process and institutional risk only.

Indicators. M-1 ABNORMAL (=). M-2 ABNORMAL (=). M-3 ROUTINE. M-4 ROUTINE (low conf.). M-5 ROUTINE (canvass pending). M-6 ROUTINE. M-7 ABNORMAL (=; preservation requests and a records suit, not a certification halt). M-8 ROUTINE. M-9 ROUTINE (pending 3 Jan). Roll-up: 3 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT. Trend =.

AM-T2 (hemispheric security), brief. SOUTHCOM's press-release page still shows 27 Oct as its latest "Lethal Kinetic Strike" release (SOUTHCOM). AMR-01 stays at 0 of 3 verified November strikes. H-1 ABNORMAL, H-2 ROUTINE, H-3 ABNORMAL, H-4 ROUTINE. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

V. INDO-PACIFIC

Taiwan Strait (IP-T1). Taiwan's defence ministry reported 4 PLA aircraft sorties for the 24 hours to 06:00 on 8 Nov, two of them entering the southwestern ADIZ, plus 6 PLA ships and 2 official ships (MND, 8 Nov; CNA). That is down from 11 the day before and well under the 49 peak. No "joint combat readiness patrol" (IPA-04 open), no 45+ day (IPA-05 open). I-1 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

Korean Peninsula (IP-T2). No new launch notice after the 4 Nov multi-missile salvo from Sondok was found (Yonhap). K-1 ABNORMAL, K-2 ROUTINE, K-3 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

South China Sea (IP-T3). A Manila Times page again describes China Coast Guard water-cannon use against Philippine government ships near Scarborough. It carries no incident date and reads as the same undated item excluded yesterday; it is excluded again until a dated official or wire report appears (IPA-02 open). The last verified water-cannon use against a Philippine government vessel remains 8 Oct at Second Thomas Shoal (still inside the 45-day SC-1 window). SC-1 ABNORMAL, SC-2 ABNORMAL, SC-3 ROUTINE. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

Baseline work: Statement of Normalcy, GL-T2 Health and Bio

SUBJECT: Global health and high-consequence biological events (focus: WHO PHEIC status; high-CFR outbreaks with cross-border spread; novel influenza with pandemic potential; extraordinary travel or border-health measures by major economies) Normal for this topic since the late 2010s is recurrent regional outbreaks (cholera, measles, mpox, yellow fever) managed under the International Health Regulations without a new high-CFR PHEIC; seasonal influenza; sporadic zoonotic influenza spillovers without sustained human-to-human transmission; and ordinary travel notices rather than multi-country entry suspensions. HB-1 High-consequence outbreak / PHEIC status (Political/health governance; WHO IHR, Disease Outbreak News): ROUTINE no PHEIC, or only the standing polio PHEIC, with other outbreaks below the emergency- committee threshold; ABNORMAL a PHEIC in force for a high-CFR pathogen (filovirus, novel influenza or similar) that WHO assesses as geographically concentrated, with global risk low or moderate; SIGNIFICANT WHO raises global risk to high, or confirmed multi-region export with local transmission in a second WHO region beyond land neighbours, or a new PHEIC for a novel pathogen; EXTREME sustained human-to-human transmission of a high-CFR pathogen in multiple WHO regions, or a pandemic-level declaration. HB-2 Novel influenza / H5 (Medical; CDC, WHO, national IHR focal points): ROUTINE epizootic H5 in birds or cattle and sporadic occupational human cases with no person-to-person transmission; ABNORMAL a human H5 death, or two or more human cases in 30 days in a previously quiet area, still without documented person-to-person spread; SIGNIFICANT a confirmed or probable limited human-to-human cluster; EXTREME sustained community transmission of H5 among people. HB-3 Extraordinary travel and border-health measures (Political; HHS/CDC, WHO, national authorities): ROUTINE standard Level 1–2 travel notices; ABNORMAL a Level 3 or 4 notice for a high-CFR outbreak, or a targeted entry suspension covering outbreak countries; SIGNIFICANT multi-country reciprocal travel bans, or a major-economy entry suspension expanded beyond the outbreak states; EXTREME widespread suspension of international travel comparable to early 2020. HB-4 Secondary outbreak load (Medical): ROUTINE outbreaks within recent five-year ranges in endemic settings; ABNORMAL a high-income country records its worst measles year in three decades, or a declared regional diphtheria emergency; SIGNIFICANT concurrent multi-region vaccine- preventable crises with clearly attributed excess deaths; EXTREME health-system collapse in a major economy attributed to concurrent outbreaks. Baseline sources / period reviewed: WHO IHR PHEIC announcement of 17 May 2026; WHO risk language as relayed in official and ministry compilations; CDC and Washington State health reporting on H5; USDA animal detections; NYS Department of Health Global Health Update, 5 Nov 2026 (compiling INSP/DRC, MOH-Kenya, NCDC and CDC figures). Current reading. HB-1: WHO determined on 17 May 2026 that the Bundibugyo-virus epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda was a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (WHO). A 5 Nov compilation of official figures, citing the DRC National Institute of Public Health as of 4 Nov, reported 10,668 confirmed DRC cases and 5,198 confirmed deaths (CFR 48.7%), plus limited export: Uganda 20 cases / 2 deaths, Kenya 9 / 2, Nigeria 1 / 0, and one imported recovered case in France, for a combined 10,699 cases and 5,202 deaths. Most DRC cases are in Ituri and North Kivu. WHO assesses the risk as very high in the DRC, high in countries that share a land border, and low globally (NYS DOH Global Health Update, 5 Nov). ABNORMAL — a high-CFR PHEIC is in force, but it remains concentrated and global risk is still assessed as low. HB-2: The same compilation, citing CDC and the Washington State Department of Health as of 5 Nov, reported 74 confirmed US influenza A(H5) cases and 3 deaths since the start of 2024, including 2 new Yakima County cases and 1 death among people exposed to infected dairy cattle. CDC says person-to-person transmission has not been documented and that the current risk to the public is low. ABNORMAL. HB-3: HHS renewed a Title 42-style entry suspension on 11 Oct for foreign nationals who were in the DRC, Uganda or South Sudan within 21 days of arrival; CDC maintains Level 4 notices for Ituri and North Kivu and Level 3 notices for Haut-Uele and Tshopo (NYS DOH / CDC). ABNORMAL. HB-4: The United States has reported 4,852 confirmed measles cases in 2026 as of 29 Oct, the most since 1991, and 8 measles-associated deaths; an elimination-status review is scheduled for 10–13 Nov (CDC via NYS DOH). ABNORMAL.

Indicators. HB-1 ABNORMAL, HB-2 ABNORMAL, HB-3 ABNORMAL, HB-4 ABNORMAL. Roll-up: 4 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS. No override. First scored. Trend =. The family-plan sketch treated "a PHEIC declaration" as an Extreme flag; the SoN above distinguishes a concentrated, low-global-risk PHEIC (Abnormal) from multi-region sustained spread (Significant/Extreme), which better matches how other WI topics treat a long-running but geographically bounded emergency.

Analyst Comment. This outbreak is a severe regional filovirus emergency, not a global pandemic signal. The scoring will move if WHO raises the global-risk language, if local transmission appears well beyond the DRC's neighbours, or if H5 shows a human-to-human cluster.

VI. AFRICA

Sahel (AF-T2). No official or wire report of 20 or more security personnel killed in a single attack in Mali, Burkina Faso or Niger was found (AFR-02 open). SA-3 stays ROUTINE after yesterday's ageing-out of the 23 Sep Niger toll. Secondary compilations still describe JNIM pressure on fuel routes into Bamako, with escorted convoys moving supplies; no new dated primary release was found (see Gaps). No official confirmation of fixed-site Algerian basing in Niger (AFR-03 open). SA-1 ROUTINE, SA-2 SIGNIFICANT, SA-3 ROUTINE, SA-4 ABNORMAL. Roll-up: 1 Significant + 1 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

Sudan and the Horn (AF-T1). Sudanese military authorities said they shot down a hostile drone over Ayyal Bakhit, West Kordofan, on 7 November (Anadolu Agency, 7 Nov). No UN-reported single event of 50 or more killed was found (AFR-01 open). The 6 Nov RSF drone strike on a fuel queue in Taqali al-Abbasiya, South Kordofan (at least 19 killed) remains the most recent verified mass-casualty civilian strike. AF-1 SIGNIFICANT, AF-2/3/4 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

VII. INDICATORS TO WATCH | EWC / EWP ASSESSMENT

VIII. PREDICTIONS

Resolved today: none. WAR-28 is not resolved: the President's Office has announced its intention to task Eisenkot, and the formal ceremony is scheduled for later today (8 Nov). A hit requires the assignment itself.

PREDICTION LEDGER CHECK (WI prefixes): open calls due within 7 days (by 15 Nov). - WAR-28 (Eisenkot first mandate by 11 Nov, 70% logged; desk ~90%): ceremony set for Sunday 8 Nov. Open, on track. - WAR-26 (Kpler Hormuz under 40% by 13 Nov, 35% logged): no Kpler print since 3 Nov (45%). Open; data gap. - WAR-19 (King Khalid Airport halt by 15 Nov, 30%): Riyadh was attacked today but the airport was not reported closed. Open. - WAR-27 (in-person US–Iran meeting by 15 Nov, 40%): none confirmed; Iran is reviewing Qatari proposals. Open. - RUS-16 (500+ drones and missiles in one night by 15 Nov, 45%): last night 167 weapons. Open; unlikely on current pace.

Other open (selected): WAR-01/02/04/24/25/29/31/32, RUS-01/04/12/13/17/18, LEV-01/02, EUR-01/03, IPA-02/04/05, AFR-01/02/03, AMR-01 (0 of 3), MID-03, MID-09.

New predictions (dated 2026-11-08): - WAR-33: A government headed by Gadi Eisenkot wins a Knesset confidence vote on or before 6 December 2026 (the initial 28-day mandate window if he is tasked on 8 Nov). 40%, unlikely to roughly even. Resolve by 2026-12-06. - WAR-34: Saudi authorities report that a Houthi attack caused a shutdown, suspension or force majeure at a named Saudi oil or gas production, processing, pipeline or export facility between 8 and 30 November 2026. Damage limited to an office building does not count. 30%, unlikely. Resolve by 2026-11-30. - GLB-01: The DRC National Institute of Public Health or WHO reports at least 12,000 confirmed Bundibugyo-virus cases in the DRC on or before 30 November 2026. 55%, roughly even. Resolve by 2026-11-30.

IX. GAPS AND UNVERIFIED

• Qeshm and Jask, Saturday evening: cause unknown. Iranian accounts conflict, and the US has neither confirmed nor denied a new strike. WAR-34 in this section's sense is the energy-facility call; a separate on-record US acknowledgment of a 7–8 Nov strike on Iranian soil is not logged today because the underlying event itself is unconfirmed.
• IRGC mine claims (two more tankers on 8 Nov) remain unconfirmed by maritime officials. No vessel names were released.
• Houthi Sanaa-area toll (33) comes from Houthi health authorities; Saudi officials said they were investigating.
• Kpler: no briefing newer than 3 Nov was retrieved. Secondary shipping notes that are not a dated Kpler 7-day clearance figure are not used for WAR-26.
• Manila Times water-cannon page is again undated and is excluded from IPA-02.
• Beirut strike claims circulating on lower-tier outlets are unverified; no L'Orient Today, Reuters, AP or official Lebanese confirmation of a Dahiyeh strike was found.
• Alaska docket 26-7304: the pre-election Justice Department suit, now on appeal, is described by USA Today; the underlying docket was not re-read today. It is not counted toward MID-09 because the race is uncalled and the original filing predates the window.
• SOUTHCOM: third-party November strike timelines remain excluded until matched by SOUTHCOM releases.
• Bamako blockade: current status still rests on secondary compilations.
• WHO PHEIC page for the 17 May Bundibugyo determination was confirmed by search and URL; the live page timed out on direct fetch. Case counts are taken from the 5 Nov NYS DOH compilation that cites INSP, MOH-Kenya, NCDC and CDC. A later official WHO situation report would be preferred.
• Oil markets are closed; the $98.32 Brent figure is Friday's settle, not a Sunday print.
• Rates and mortgage detail is in the owner-only private note (cross-ref Economics WIRE).

Sources

All sources are linked inline. Primary and data sources: CENTCOM public releases (7 Nov, Huda and Iron Gate), Saudi Energy Ministry via Reuters/CNBC/Ynet, Ukrainian Air Force via RBC-Ukraine and Kyiv Post, Taiwan MND PLA activity report (8 Nov), President of Israel statements via Guardian/Axios, IRGC remarks via Iran International, ICE Brent settle via Xinhua, WHO PHEIC determination (17 May 2026), NYS Department of Health Global Health Update (5 Nov, compiling INSP/CDC/national ministry figures), SOUTHCOM press releases, USA Today / AP on uncalled Senate races. Reporting: ABC/AP, Axios, Guardian, CNBC, Ynet, CNA, Yonhap, Anadolu Agency, BFMTV, Le Figaro, Al Jazeera live index (title only; full live blog timed out).

WIRE World Instability | WIRE Desk | Open-source analysis. Not investment, legal or voting advice. UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE.

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