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UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE | Monday, 9 November 2026 | Vol. 2026-313 | As of 090600 EST NOV 26
Baseline work today: the Sudan and the Horn (AF-T1) Statement of Normalcy is refreshed below (first written 1 Nov). Next in the rotation: AF-T2 (Sahel). Comparisons are against the 8 Nov edition.
BLUF. The Middle East stays at PROBABLE CRISIS and the family trend is unchanged, as new energy-infrastructure damage is offset by softer US language on Iran. President Herzog formally tasked Gadi Eisenkot with forming Israel's next government on Sunday, so WAR-28 resolves as a hit and WAR-24 as a miss. Late on Sunday a drone hit Iraq's Khor Mor gas field. The operator suspended production, and the Kurdistan Region lost about 2.8 GW of generation; no group has claimed it. The Houthis claimed the weekend strike on Riyadh's financial district and also claimed hits on Abqaiq and the airport; Saudi Arabia reported only minor damage to Aramco's tower. The President said new strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" if talks progress, and he hosts Qatar's prime minister today. The third carrier left Singapore. UKMTO logged two tanker incidents in Hormuz. Russia launched 317 drones and no missiles at Ukraine. Brent trades near $97–98. Global roll-up: PROBABLE CRISIS (=).
| REGION / TOPIC | CRISIS LEVEL | DOM. INDICATOR | KEY DRIVER (today) | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global roll-up (GL-T1) | PROBABLE CRISIS | EXTREME | Khor Mor shut by drone; Houthis claim Riyadh; "highly unlikely" strikes | = |
| Global: health and bio (GL-T2) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | Bundibugyo PHEIC in force; no new official count retrieved | = |
| Middle East: widespread war (ME-T1) | PROBABLE CRISIS | EXTREME | Khor Mor halt; UKMTO tanker hits; third carrier sails | = |
| Middle East: Levant and Syria (ME-T2) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | SIGNIFICANT | Southern Lebanon strikes; no verified Dahiyeh strike | = |
| Europe/Russia: Russian aggression (EU-T1) | POTENTIAL CRISIS | SIGNIFICANT | 317 drones, no missiles; Abu Dhabi talks 10–11 Nov | = |
| Europe: internal stability (EU-T2) | POTENTIAL CRISIS | SIGNIFICANT | Matignon social conference under way today | = |
| Americas: US election integrity (AM-T1) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | Mississippi affidavit deadline 10 Nov; Alaska count 18 Nov | = |
| Americas: hemispheric security (AM-T2) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | Still no November SOUTHCOM strike release | = |
| Indo-Pacific: Taiwan Strait (IP-T1) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | 1 sortie (northern ADIZ), 7 ships | = |
| Indo-Pacific: Korean Peninsula (IP-T2) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | No launch since 4 Nov | = |
| Indo-Pacific: South China Sea (IP-T3) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | ABNORMAL | Last dated water cannon still 8 Oct | = |
| Africa: Sudan and the Horn (AF-T1) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | SIGNIFICANT | SoN refreshed; Kordofan offensive; Sudan–Ethiopia rift | = |
| Africa: Sahel (AF-T2) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS | SIGNIFICANT | No official 20+ security-personnel toll | = |
Level changes since 8 Nov: none. Trend changes: none. Trend key: ↑ toward crisis, ↓ away, = no net change.
Moved indicators (vs 8 November). Within band: W-6 SIGNIFICANT ↑ (an energy facility in Iraq's Kurdistan Region shut by a drone strike, the first hit there in about four months); W-1 EXTREME (=; UKMTO now independently logs two tanker incidents in Hormuz, while Iran's mine claims are still unverified); W-5 SIGNIFICANT (=; the third carrier group left Singapore, and there were no new US strikes on Iran); W-8 SIGNIFICANT ↓ within band (the President says strikes are "highly unlikely" if talks progress; Qatar's prime minister is at the White House today); W-7 ABNORMAL (=; Brent dipped toward $97); R-3 SIGNIFICANT (=; 317 drones, no missiles); I-1 ABNORMAL ↓ within band (4 → 1 sortie); AF-4 ABNORMAL ↑ within band (Sudan's UN/AU complaint and tit-for-tat consular expulsions with Ethiopia).
The family level remains the Middle East's PROBABLE CRISIS, set by W-1 and W-2 at Extreme. The trend stays =. On the escalatory side, a drone shut an Iraqi gas field that powers most of the Kurdistan Region, the Houthis claimed a four-part strike package on Saudi Arabia, UKMTO logged two tanker incidents in Hormuz, and the third US carrier is now heading west. On the other side, the President said publicly that new strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" if talks progress, Qatar's mediation moves to the White House today, Israel's mandate passed in an orderly way, Russia's overnight raid on Ukraine used no missiles, and Taiwan's sortie count fell to one. None of the Imminent tripwires is met: W-5 still needs 10 or more US killed in one event or ground operations in Iran, W-6 needs a Gulf state as a belligerent at Extreme, and R-4/R-6 are not at Extreme.
GL-T2 (Health and Bio) stays ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=). No newer official Bundibugyo count than the 4 Nov INSP figures cited yesterday was retrieved (GLB-01 open).
Analyst Comment. The pattern today is pressure on infrastructure without a decision on strikes. Washington is pairing a softer tone with a third carrier on the way, which keeps both the deal path and the strike path open until at least mid-November.
Israel mandate (WAR-28 hit, WAR-24 miss). On Sunday 8 November, at a ceremony at the President's Residence in Jerusalem, President Herzog tasked Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot with forming a government. He cited the 67 recommendations Eisenkot received to Netanyahu's 46, and acknowledged that Likud remains the largest faction with 27 seats (Times of Israel, 8 Nov; Israel National News, quoting the President). Eisenkot has 28 days, extendable by up to 14, and called for "unconventional steps" toward a "national emergency government." Both Arab-led parties recommended him, but their recommendations do not commit them to join his coalition (Jerusalem Post, 8 Nov). Ynet reports that he does not intend to swear in a government this week (Ynet). WAR-33 (confidence vote by 6 Dec, 40%) stays open.
Khor Mor. A suspected drone struck Iraq's Khor Mor gas field in Sulaymaniyah province at about 23:10 on 8 November. Operator Dana Gas told the Abu Dhabi exchange on Monday that the fire had been extinguished, no staff were hurt, and "production operations remain suspended pending an assessment of the damage" (Kurdistan24, 9 Nov; Reuters, 8 Nov). The Kurdistan Region's Electricity Ministry said about 2.8 GW of generation was lost and gas supply to plants serving Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Duhok was cut. Al Jazeera put the outage at more than 70% of the region (Al Jazeera, 9 Nov). Iraq's prime minister ordered a joint investigation. No group has claimed the strike. Telegram channels linked to pro-Iran Iraqi groups described a "suicide drone," and Rudaw says this ends an almost four-month lull in attacks on the field (Rudaw, 9 Nov). New call WAR-35 tracks the restart.
Houthi–Saudi front. The Houthis, in an English-language statement, claimed "four qualitative military operations" using ballistic and cruise missiles and drones. They listed Riyadh's financial district, King Khalid International Airport, Aramco storage tanks and Abqaiq among the targets. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said shrapnel caused "minor damage" to an Aramco administrative building, with no injuries or deaths, and the coalition said it intercepted two ballistic missiles fired at Riyadh (AFP, 8 Nov). BBC Verify authenticated footage showing heavier damage than the ministry described, with at least one floor badly hit (BBC). No Saudi authority has reported an Abqaiq outage or an airport halt, so WAR-34 and WAR-19 stay open. The UAE condemned the attempted attacks (The National live, 9 Nov).
Hormuz. UKMTO reported that on Saturday night an unnamed tanker was "struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound." Separately, "military authorities" reported a tanker on fire 8 nm northwest of Khasab, Oman, and its crew was evacuated (ABC News live, 9 Nov). UKMTO also logged an incident involving a bulk carrier and military forces about 18 nm east of Khor Fakkan, which may be the Huda disablement. The IRGC says two tankers hit mines and Fars says a third caught fire; Reuters could not confirm the strikes (Baird Maritime / Reuters, 9 Nov). Iranian state TV now suggests the Qeshm explosions were linked to Iranian military activity rather than US strikes. No Kpler 7-day clearance figure newer than 3 Nov was found (WAR-26, due 13 Nov; WAR-29).
US posture and diplomacy. The President told CNN on Sunday that new attacks were "highly unlikely" to be necessary, adding, "It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement" (CGTN, relaying CNN/Reuters). He hosts Qatar's prime minister at the White House today. Iran's two-day proposal is to be discussed only after its seven demands are met: sanctions relief, a smaller US presence, restored oil waivers, release of frozen funds, recognition of the Iran–Oman shipping route, and an end to the war on all fronts. Axios has quoted a US official as saying CENTCOM is ready for renewed major operations and is waiting for orders (Al Jazeera, 9 Nov). An Iraqi delegation carried a US message to Tehran (CGTN). USS Theodore Roosevelt left Singapore on Sunday and is expected in the CENTCOM area by mid-November (The Week, 9 Nov). WAR-32 is not yet met, because the carrier has not been reported inside the area. WAR-27 (in-person US–Iran meeting by 15 Nov) stays open.
Prices. Brent fell 84 cents to $97.48 at Monday's open after a 17% weekly drop, the steepest since the pandemic (CNBC / Reuters, 9 Nov). Reuters later had it near $98.35 (Euronext / Reuters). WAR-31 ($105 by 20 Nov) and WAR-25 ($120) look less likely.
Indicators. W-1 EXTREME (=; two UKMTO-logged tanker incidents). W-2 EXTREME (=; Houthi claims outrun the verified damage). W-3 SIGNIFICANT (=). W-4 ABNORMAL (=). W-5 SIGNIFICANT (=). W-6 SIGNIFICANT (↑ within band; Khor Mor). W-7 ABNORMAL (=; ~$97–98). W-8 SIGNIFICANT (↓ within band; softer US tone, conditions-first Iran). Roll-up: 2 Extreme + 4 Significant + 2 Abnormal = PROBABLE. Tripwires not met. Trend =.
Analyst Comment. Khor Mor matters because it widens the energy war to a third country's grid without anyone claiming it. The method fits earlier militia attacks, but attribution is not established (see Gaps). The President's "highly unlikely" remark lowers the near-term odds of a large campaign without removing them: the carrier is still coming and CENTCOM is reportedly ready. We assess a resumption of major US combat operations against Iran before 30 Nov as unlikely (about 20–25%), down from 25–30%. A smaller acknowledged strike on Iranian land, like the 2 Nov Qeshm action, is likelier (WAR-36, 40%).
ME-T2 (Levant), brief. Local Lebanese outlets reported Israeli artillery and air strikes in the south on 8 Nov, including Hadatha and Mansouri (LBN News, 8 Nov). No verified strike on Beirut's southern suburbs was found (LEV-02 open). AFP, citing Yemeni officials, reports that thousands of Syrian troops are set to deploy to Saudi Arabia and Yemen. This is unconfirmed by either government (see Gaps). LV-4 SIGNIFICANT, LV-3 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).
Overnight attack. Ukraine's Air Force said that from 18:00 on 8 November Russia launched 317 drones, among them 105 jet-powered Shaheds, S8000 Banderol/Dan-T, Gerbera and decoy types. By 08:00, 276 had been shot down or suppressed, with hits at 31 locations (Ukrainska Pravda, 9 Nov; Interfax-Ukraine). No missiles were listed. Drones hit a hotel and an apartment block in Kremenchuk, injuring seven, and an energy attack cut power in northern Odesa region (NV, 9 Nov). The total is well below the 500 bar for RUS-16 (due 15 Nov), and with no ballistic missiles RUS-18 is not met. Ukrainian drones struck toward the Kirishi refinery near St Petersburg. The regional governor said 113 drones were downed, and Pulkovo airport closed for about 90 minutes (Military Affairs, citing Kyiv Independent and the governor).
Talks. The US-mediated Abu Dhabi round is on for 10–11 Nov. The EU will send a joint team, despite Kremlin objections (Euronews, 9 Nov). Russia is sending a high-level delegation (Kyiv Post). RUS-13 (trilateral in-person meeting by 20 Nov) would likely resolve as a hit once the meeting is confirmed. It stays open today.
NATO flank. No new confirmed Russian violation of NATO airspace since Latvia's 1 Nov drone report was found. Romania scrambled jets near Tulcea without a recorded violation (Antena 3 CNN, on Latvia). RUS-04 open.
Indicators. R-3 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-4 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-5 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-6 / R-8 / R-10 ABNORMAL (=). R-1 ROUTINE. Roll-up: 3 Significant = POTENTIAL. Trend =.
Analyst Comment. The weekend followed the pre-talks pattern: a large drone night with no missiles, and Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian refineries. A 500-weapon night before 15 Nov is unlikely (about 30%), although RUS-16 is still logged at 45%.
EU-T2 (European internal stability). Prime Minister Lecornu's social conference with unions and employers is under way at Matignon this morning. CGT leader Sophie Binet said a minimum-wage increase "cannot be 5 euros." Some secondary schools were blockaded early in the day (Le Parisien live, 9 Nov; CNews live). The intersyndicale will decide next steps afterwards (franceinfo). The window for EUR-03 opens today. EI-1 SIGNIFICANT, EI-2 ABNORMAL, EI-3 SIGNIFICANT, EI-4 ROUTINE. POTENTIAL CRISIS (=).
Mississippi. In unofficial results with about 97% counted, Democrat Scott Colom leads Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 2,574 votes. More than 2,800 absentee ballots are outstanding, and of 12,767 affidavit ballots processed, about 77% were accepted (WAPT, 9 Nov). Voters have until 10 Nov to cure affidavit ballots (Jackson Wire). The incumbent's campaign has already asked counties to preserve affidavit ballots (WLBT, 5 Nov).
Alaska. First-choice totals have not changed since 4 Nov: Peltola leads Sullivan 102,962 to 102,325. About 51,000 early and absentee ballots remain, mail ballots are accepted through 13 Nov and overseas ballots through 18 Nov, and ranked-choice tabulation is set for 18 Nov (Newsweek, citing the Division of Elections). The Washington Post reports that the President continues to claim a Republican win while counting is under way (Washington Post, 8 Nov). That is rhetoric about an uncalled race, not a certification refusal or a filing, so MID-03 and MID-09 stay open. This desk takes no position on any party's programme and scores process risk only.
Indicators. M-1 ABNORMAL (=). M-2 ABNORMAL (=; premature victory claims about an uncalled race). M-3 ROUTINE. M-4 ROUTINE (low conf.). M-5 ROUTINE (canvass pending). M-6 ROUTINE. M-7 ABNORMAL (=). M-8 ROUTINE. M-9 ROUTINE. Roll-up: 3 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT. Trend =.
AM-T2 (hemispheric security), brief. SOUTHCOM's press-release index still lists 27 Oct as its latest "Lethal Kinetic Strike" (SOUTHCOM), and the Just Security timeline (updated 27 Oct) counts 72 strikes (Just Security). AMR-01 stays at 0 of 3 with 21 days left. This is now a likely miss unless strikes resume quickly. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).
Taiwan Strait (IP-T1). For the 24 hours to 06:00 on 9 Nov, Taiwan's defence ministry reported 1 PLA aircraft sortie, which entered the northern ADIZ, plus 7 PLAN ships and 1 official ship (MND, 9 Nov). There was no joint combat readiness patrol (IPA-04 open) and no 45+ day (IPA-05 open). I-1 ABNORMAL (↓ within band). ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).
Korean Peninsula (IP-T2). No launch since the 4 Nov multi-missile salvo from Sondok, which flew under 300 km, was found (Yonhap, 4 Nov). An aggregator claim of a launch on 8 Nov had no JCS or Japanese ministry confirmation and is excluded (see Gaps). K-1 ABNORMAL, K-2 ROUTINE, K-3 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).
South China Sea (IP-T3). The most recent dated water-cannon use against a Philippine government vessel remains 8 Oct, during a medical-evacuation mission near Second Thomas Shoal (Inquirer). The undated Manila Times page is still excluded (IPA-02 open). SC-1 ABNORMAL, SC-2 ABNORMAL, SC-3 ROUTINE. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).
SUBJECT: Sudan and the Horn / Red Sea coast QUESTION: could the SAF-RSF war
produce a mass-atrocity, famine or regional-war shock beyond its 2023-26 norm?
(Internal Stability + Regional Conflict; PMESII-PT: Military, Social, Infra)
Normal 2024-mid 2026 (a war-time norm, not peace): ACLED-recorded deaths of
roughly 1,000-2,500 a month; famine (IPC Phase 5) confirmed in pockets of
Darfur/Kordofan; 12-14M displaced; foreign arms and drone supply alleged but
no state openly fighting on Sudanese soil. Refresh note (9 Nov): the norm now
includes a nationwide long-range drone campaign against power and fuel
infrastructure, so infrastructure hits alone no longer move AF-1; deaths and
UN-verified single events do.
AF-1 Lethality (ACLED via HDX; OHCHR/UN) R: below the 8-week mean | A: within
+25% | S: > +25%, or a UN-reported single event of
50+ killed, or UN/SG language of "hundreds" killed
by a weapon type in weeks | E: a UN-reported massacre
of 200+, or a city of 500k+ changing hands
AF-2 Famine (IPC portal) R: no Phase 5 | A: an IPC alert of famine risk |
S: a new Phase 5 (Famine) classification in any area
E: Phase 5 classified across multiple states
AF-3 Cross-border flows (UNHCR data portal) R: under 10k/week | A: 10-30k |
S: > 30k/week, or a new receiving state opens camps
E: > 100k/week
AF-4 Foreign-state involvement, Red Sea/Horn R: allegations only by
partisans | A: a government formally accuses a named
state (incl. UNSC/AU complaints, envoy expulsions) |
S: verified launch from or strike on a neighbour's
territory, a foreign naval base deal activated, or
a neighbour-to-neighbour war (e.g. Ethiopia-Eritrea)
opening on Sudan's border | E: a neighbouring state's
forces in open combat in Sudan
Baseline sources: ACLED/HDX, OHCHR, UN News and SG statements, IPC, UNHCR
data portal; Sudan Tribune / Radio Dabanga (local reporting, named as such).
Period: 1 Sep-8 Nov 2026
Current reading. AF-1: The UN Secretary-General said drone strikes had killed hundreds of civilians across Sudan and Abyei. OCHA said attacks on power stations in Kassala, Merowe, River Nile and Red Sea states were cutting water supplies (Radio Dabanga, 4 Nov). On 8 Nov, the Sudanese military and allied Joint Forces advanced in West Kordofan near El-Khwei and Um Kuraidim and shot down an FH-95 long-range drone near Wad Banda, the third in Kordofan in 72 hours (Sudan Tribune, 8 Nov). No UN-reported single event of 50 or more killed has been found since the disputed 26 Oct Nyala market toll (AFR-01 open). SIGNIFICANT. AF-2: The IPC's 12 Oct alert warns of a rising risk of famine in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan. Child acute malnutrition in two Eastern Jebel Marra camps (38% and 30.8%) is above the famine threshold, but the Famine Review Committee says there is not enough data for a full classification (UN News, 12 Oct). No new Phase 5. ABNORMAL. AF-3: UNHCR issued a 2 Nov update on arrivals in Chad (ReliefWeb / UNHCR), but its weekly figure could not be extracted (infographic only). No figure above 30,000 a week was found. ABNORMAL (carried). AF-4: Sudan lodged complaints with the UN Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council. It accuses Ethiopia of allowing RSF drone launches and lists 97 launches, 28 of which hit targets inside Sudan; Ethiopia denies this (The EastAfrican, 4 Nov). Ethiopia then expelled six Sudanese consular staff from Assosa, and Sudan closed Ethiopia's consulate in Gedaref. Eritrea has severed ties with Ethiopia (The National, 5 Nov). These are formal state accusations, not a verified cross-border launch. ABNORMAL (↑ within band).
Indicators. AF-1 SIGNIFICANT, AF-2 ABNORMAL, AF-3 ABNORMAL, AF-4 ABNORMAL. Roll-up: 1 Significant + 3 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=). No override.
Analyst Comment. The danger in the Horn is changing. Famine and lethality are still severe but steady. The fastest-moving risk is now interstate: Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt are expelling one another's diplomats while Tigray fighting has resumed. AF-4 would reach Significant, and the topic POTENTIAL, if a neutral body verified one launch from Ethiopia or if Ethiopia and Eritrea started fighting. We judge AFR-01 (a UN-reported 50+ event by 30 Nov) roughly even (about 45%), a little under its logged 55%.
Sahel (AF-T2). No official or wire report of 20 or more security personnel killed in a single attack in Mali, Burkina Faso or Niger was found. A 6 Nov checkpoint attack in Mali killed one customs officer, per a secondary tracker (AFR-02 open). There is no official confirmation of Algerian basing in Niger (AFR-03 open). SA-1 ROUTINE, SA-2 SIGNIFICANT, SA-3 ROUTINE, SA-4 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=). The AF-T2 SoN refresh is next.
| SCORE | TYPE | INDICATOR | WHY IT MATTERS | NEXT TRIGGER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXTREME | EWC | W-1 Hormuz flows / attacks | UKMTO logs two tanker incidents; no new Kpler print | Kpler under 40% (WAR-26, 13 Nov); 50%+ (WAR-29) |
| EXTREME | EWP | W-2 Houthi–Saudi | Claims on Riyadh, KKIA, Abqaiq; minor verified damage | Abqaiq or other facility halt (WAR-34); KKIA halt (WAR-19) |
| SIGNIFICANT | EWP | W-6 Gulf/Iraq energy | Khor Mor shut; 2.8 GW lost | Restart (WAR-35); a Gulf state strikes Iran |
| SIGNIFICANT | EWP | W-5 US forces | Third carrier sails from Singapore | Carrier in the area (WAR-32); land strike (WAR-36) |
| SIGNIFICANT | EWP | W-8 Diplomacy | "Highly unlikely" strikes; Qatar PM at White House | In-person meeting (WAR-27, 15 Nov); Hormuz deal (WAR-01) |
| SIGNIFICANT | EWP | R-3 Strikes on Ukraine | 317 drones, no missiles | 500+ night (RUS-16); 30+ ballistic (RUS-18) |
| SIGNIFICANT | EWP | R-4 NATO spillover | No new violation | Article 4 request (RUS-04) |
| SIGNIFICANT | EWC | EI-1/EI-3 France | Social conference today | New national strike day (EUR-03); spread >175 bp (EUR-01) |
| SIGNIFICANT | EWP | LV-4 Lebanon | Southern strikes only | Dahiyeh strike (LEV-02) |
| SIGNIFICANT | EWC | AF-1 Sudan | Kordofan offensive; drone war on grid | UN-reported 50+ event (AFR-01) |
| SIGNIFICANT | EWC | SA-2 Sahel capitals | Bamako pressure (secondary) | 20+ killed in one attack (AFR-02) |
| ABNORMAL | EWP | AF-4 Horn interstate | UNSC/AU complaint; expulsions | Verified launch from Ethiopia; Ethiopia–Eritrea fighting |
| ABNORMAL | EWP | W-7 Energy price | Brent ~$97–98 | Above $105 (WAR-31) |
| ABNORMAL | EWP | I-1 Taiwan | 1 sortie | Joint combat readiness patrol (IPA-04) |
| ABNORMAL | EWP | K-1 DPRK | Quiet since 4 Nov | Intermediate-range or ICBM launch |
| ABNORMAL | EWP | SC-1/SC-2 SCS | Last dated water cannon 8 Oct | Verified water cannon (IPA-02) |
| ABNORMAL | EWC | M-1/M-2/M-7 US count | MS cure deadline 10 Nov; AK 18 Nov | Refusal (MID-03); suit on a called race (MID-09) |
| ABNORMAL | EWC | HB-1 Health | PHEIC in force | 12,000 DRC cases (GLB-01) |
Resolved today (2): - WAR-28: HIT. Herzog formally tasked Eisenkot on 8 Nov (Times of Israel). Logged at 0.70; Brier 0.09. - WAR-24: MISS. The first mandate went to Eisenkot, not Netanyahu (Jerusalem Post). Logged at 0.55; Brier 0.3025.
PREDICTION LEDGER CHECK (WI prefixes): open calls due within 7 days (by 16 Nov). - WAR-26 (Kpler Hormuz under 40% by 13 Nov, 35%): no Kpler print since 3 Nov (45%). Open; data gap. - WAR-19 (KKIA halt by 15 Nov, 30%): the Houthis claim the airport was targeted; no Saudi report of a halt. Open. - WAR-27 (in-person US–Iran meeting by 15 Nov, 40%): only Qatar-mediated and Iraqi-carried messages so far. Open; leaning miss. - RUS-16 (500+ night by 15 Nov, 45%): latest nights were 167 and 317. Open; leaning miss.
Other open (selected): WAR-01/02/04/25/29/31/32/33/34, RUS-01/04/12/13/17/18, LEV-01/02, EUR-01/03, IPA-02/04/05, AFR-01/02/03, AMR-01 (0 of 3), MID-03, MID-09, GLB-01.
New predictions (dated 2026-11-09): - WAR-35: Dana Gas or the Kurdistan Regional Government reports that gas production at Khor Mor has resumed, fully or partly, on or before 20 November 2026. 45%, roughly even. Resolve by 2026-11-20. - WAR-36: The US government acknowledges a US strike on Iranian land territory, islands included, dated 10–30 November 2026. Strikes on vessels do not count. 40%, unlikely to roughly even. Resolve by 2026-11-30.
All sources are linked inline. Primary and data sources: President of Israel remarks (via Times of Israel, INN, Jerusalem Post, Ynet); Dana Gas ADX disclosure and KRG ministries (via Kurdistan24, Reuters, Rudaw, Al Jazeera); Saudi Energy Ministry and coalition statements (via AFP, BBC); UKMTO advisories (via ABC News, Reuters); Ukrainian Air Force (via Ukrainska Pravda, Interfax-Ukraine); Taiwan MND PLA activity report (9 Nov); SOUTHCOM press index; UN News / IPC alert; UNHCR/ReliefWeb; Sudan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (via The EastAfrican). Reporting: CNBC, Reuters/Euronext, CGTN (relaying CNN), Al Jazeera, The National, The Week, Euronews, Kyiv Post, NV, Le Parisien, CNews, franceinfo, WAPT, WLBT, Jackson Wire, Newsweek, Washington Post, Yonhap, Inquirer, Radio Dabanga, Sudan Tribune, LBN News.
WIRE World Instability | WIRE Desk | Open-source analysis. Not investment, legal or voting advice. UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE.
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