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UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE | Tuesday, 10 November 2026 | Vol. 2026-314 | As of 100600 EST NOV 26

Baseline work today: the Sahel (AF-T2) Statement of Normalcy is refreshed below (first written 26 Oct, refreshed 2 Nov). Next in the rotation: ME-T2 (Levant). Comparisons are against the 9 Nov edition.

BLUF. The Middle East stays at PROBABLE CRISIS and the family trend is unchanged, as the strongest US de-escalation language of the war is matched by continued Houthi fire on Saudi Arabia and low Hormuz flows. After meeting Qatar's prime minister, the President said Iran "militarily is effectively over" and new strikes were "quite unlikely," while keeping forces "locked and loaded." Brent slipped below $90 for the first time since August. Iran still demands its seven conditions first and denies a planned Vance–Rezaei meeting. The Houthis hit the East-West pipeline (operations unaffected) and fired three missiles at Riyadh and the south. Kpler's 10 Nov briefing puts Hormuz clearance at 46% of baseline. A missed 5 Nov Kpler print (67%) resolves WAR-29 as a hit. US, Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Abu Dhabi (RUS-13 hit), and French unions called a 17 Nov interprofessional strike (EUR-03 hit). Global roll-up: PROBABLE CRISIS (=).

0. WIRE World Instability Dashboard

Level changes since 9 Nov: none. Trend changes: none. Trend key: ↑ toward crisis, ↓ away, = no net change.

Moved indicators (vs 9 November). Within band: W-8 SIGNIFICANT ↓ ("effectively over"; conditions-first stances remain); W-7 ABNORMAL ↓ (Brent ~$90 from ~$97); W-5 SIGNIFICANT ↑ (aircraft moved from RAF Mildenhall over an Iranian threat); R-10 ABNORMAL ↓ (in-person trilateral); W-1/W-2 EXTREME (=); EI-1 SIGNIFICANT (=; strike day called); SA-4 ABNORMAL (=; Algeria confirms the Niger unit).

I. GLOBAL ROLL-UP (GL-T1) | PROBABLE CRISIS

The family level remains the Middle East's PROBABLE CRISIS, set by W-1 and W-2 at Extreme; trend =. De-escalatory: the President framed the war as militarily over, Qatar carried Iran's proposal to the Oval Office and the G7, oil fell below $90, and the Ukraine trilateral met in person. Escalatory: the Houthi–Saudi exchange intensified, Hormuz flows fell back to 46%, Khor Mor stays shut, and US aircraft left a second UK base over an Iranian threat. No Imminent tripwire is met (W-5 or W-6 at Extreme; R-4/R-6 at Extreme).

GL-T2 (Health and Bio) stays ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=). INSP's SitRep 177 reports 10,920 confirmed Bundibugyo cases and 5,323 confirmed deaths in the DRC as of 7 Nov, with 41 new confirmed cases that day across 8 provinces (INSP SitRep 177). GLB-01 (12,000 by 30 Nov, 55%) stays open.

Analyst Comment. At about 41 cases a day the INSP total reaches roughly 11,900 by 30 Nov, so GLB-01 is roughly even (about 45–50%). The political signals point to de-escalation; the physical indicators that set the level have not followed.

II. MIDDLE EAST: ME-T1 WIDESPREAD WAR (ISRAEL-ORIGINATED) | PROBABLE CRISIS

US–Iran diplomacy. After meeting Qatar's prime minister and Vice President Vance on Monday, the President told reporters that "Iran militarily is effectively over. We're just keeping it the status quo," and said that status quo means continuing the naval blockade and the new Task Force Iron Gate on Iran's land routes "at the behest of" its neighbours (AP, 9 Nov; Al Jazeera, 9 Nov). On Truth Social he said the US remained "locked and loaded" but that new major combat "seems to be quite unlikely" (Al-Monitor). Iron Gate was set up on 7 Nov (CENTCOM).

Turkey's intelligence chief said Qatar would host Vance and Iran's security council secretary Mohsen Rezaei next week; Tehran denied it, and Rezaei told Washington to stop "manufacturing fake news about imaginary talks" (Euronews, 10 Nov). Araghchi said the two-day proposal "remain[s] on the table" if Iran's conditions are met (Arab News / AFP, 10 Nov). President Pezeshkian said the supreme leader had ordered officials to end the "no war, no peace" situation (Tasnim, 9 Nov). Qatar's prime minister briefs European and Saudi ministers at the G7 in Paris today (Iran International live). WAR-27 (in-person US–Iran meeting by 15 Nov) stays open but leans toward a miss.

Strikes on Iran. A Hormozgan deputy governor says the US struck Qeshm again overnight on 8–9 Nov without damaging vital infrastructure (Anadolu); the US has not acknowledged it, and it predates the WAR-36 window.

Houthi–Saudi front. A Saudi Energy Ministry official told SPA that Monday's attack on the East-West pipeline in Medina region caused a "limited fire" and that "pipeline operations were unaffected." On Tuesday the coalition said it intercepted a ballistic and a cruise missile over Riyadh and a second ballistic missile over the south; residents got shelter alerts (Al Jazeera / AFP, 10 Nov). The coalition says it destroyed Houthi missile facilities (Arab News). Syria's foreign minister said Syria has no troops in Yemen and no plans to send any "in the near future" (The National, 9 Nov). With operations unaffected, WAR-34 is not met; no airport halt (WAR-19).

Hormuz (WAR-29 hit). Kpler's 5 Nov briefing, missed by this desk until today, reports Total Hormuz Clearance of 11,455 kbd (7 days to 3 Nov), about 67% of the 17,147 kbd baseline; 6 Nov reports 69% (Kpler, 5 Nov; Kpler, 6 Nov). That meets WAR-29's 50% bar. Flows have since fallen back: the 10 Nov briefing puts the 7 days to 8 Nov at 7,824 kbd (46%), with 11 tanker crossings a day against 50 pre-war and seven ship attacks in the Gulf since 1 Nov (Kpler, 10 Nov). WAR-26 (below 40% by 13 Nov) stays open.

Iraq / Khor Mor. Production is still suspended; Reuters sources place the launch near Tuz Khurmatu, but nothing is officially established (Al Jazeera analysis, 10 Nov). WAR-35 (restart by 20 Nov) stays open.

Out-of-theatre threat. A US official confirmed that several aircraft left RAF Mildenhall under "enhanced force protection measures." At least eight tankers and three Ospreys moved; the Wall Street Journal tied it to an Iranian threat, after the earlier bomber move from RAF Fairford (NBC News, 10 Nov). France formally attributed the 11–12 Oct sabotage of refrigeration systems at about 700 retail sites to the IRGC (France Diplomatie; cross-ref Technology WIRE).

Israel. The 26th Knesset is sworn in today. Eisenkot and Liberman agreed that the next Knesset speaker will come from Eisenkot's party. Liberman pressed him to drop an Arab-backed minority option and promised to "bring the Haredi parties." Netanyahu renewed his call for a unity government under his own leadership (Ynet). WAR-33 (confidence vote by 6 Dec, 40%) stays open.

US Congress. A unanimous-consent agreement on Monday sets discharge of the Iran war-powers resolution (H.Con.Res.93) and a vote no later than 20 Nov (Senate Daily Press, 9 Nov). A similar measure failed 49–50 on 24 Sep (IBTimes, citing the Senate record). New call WAR-37.

Prices. Brent was down 2.65% at $90.14 at 05:33 ET, after dipping below $90 for the first time since August. WTI was at $84.78 (CNBC, 10 Nov). WAR-31 ($105 by 20 Nov) and WAR-25 ($120 by 30 Nov) are now unlikely.

Indicators. W-1 EXTREME (=; flows 54% below baseline, seven ship attacks since 1 Nov). W-2 EXTREME (=; pipeline hit, missiles on Riyadh). W-3 SIGNIFICANT (=). W-4 ABNORMAL (=). W-5 SIGNIFICANT (↑ within band; force-protection moves in the UK). W-6 SIGNIFICANT (=; coalition strikes in Yemen, Khor Mor shut). W-7 ABNORMAL (↓ within band; ~$90). W-8 SIGNIFICANT (↓ within band; conditions-first stances persist, so not yet Abnormal). Roll-up: 2 Extreme + 4 Significant + 2 Abnormal = PROBABLE. Tripwires not met. Trend =.

Analyst Comment. The President now describes a frozen war: blockade plus deterrence, no new campaign. With the Senate vote due by 20 Nov and the midterm result, a resumption of major US combat operations before 30 Nov is unlikely (about 15–20%), down from 20–25%. Small Qeshm strikes continue unannounced, but acknowledgement is the hard part, so WAR-36 is now unlikely (about 30–35%). The Houthi campaign on Saudi Arabia is the likeliest source of the next energy shock, and 46% flows show the market's optimism has not reached the strait.

ME-T2 (Levant), brief. Israeli warplanes struck Kfar Tebnit and Qantara in southern Lebanon on 9 Nov, and artillery shelled nearby areas (Petra). No verified strike on Beirut's southern suburbs was found (LEV-02 open), and no new Jordanian strike in Syria (LEV-01 open). LV-4 SIGNIFICANT, LV-3 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=). The ME-T2 SoN refresh is next.

III. EUROPE/RUSSIA: EU-T1 RUSSIAN AGGRESSION | POTENTIAL CRISIS

Talks (RUS-13 hit). US, Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday. Witkoff and Kushner lead the US side, Umerov leads Ukraine's (with Budanov and Arakhamia), and Medinsky leads Russia's (with Ushakov, Kostyukov and Ryabkov, per Peskov). Umerov posted a photo of the session (ABC News, 10 Nov; BBC). A US official cited "a little bit of flexibility" privately on the eastern regions and a US proposal to widen the format to Europeans; Peskov says it stays trilateral. RUS-17 (named follow-on date by 25 Nov) is now the live diplomacy call. RUS-12 (Trump–Putin meeting by 20 Nov) has no scheduled date.

Strikes. Overnight into 10 Nov, Russia launched 1 Iskander-M from Millerovo and 162 drones (96 jet-powered). 135 were downed or suppressed, and hits were recorded at 19 locations (Interfax-Ukraine / Air Force; Ukrainska Pravda). Energy sites in Poltava and Kyiv regions were hit; attacks killed nine people over the day (Kyiv Independent). RUS-16 (500+ night by 15 Nov) and RUS-18 (30+ ballistic) are not met.

NATO flank. Romania issued an RO-Alert and scrambled two F-16s after a drone was detected about 30 km from Sulina on 9 Nov. No airspace violation was confirmed (Informat.ro). RUS-04 open.

Indicators. R-3 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-4 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-5 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-6 / R-8 ABNORMAL (=). R-10 ABNORMAL (↓ within band; talks in progress in person, earlier local truces lapsed). R-1 ROUTINE. Roll-up: 3 Significant = POTENTIAL. Trend =.

Analyst Comment. Moscow again kept its package small during talks. RUS-16 is unlikely (about 20–25%), below its logged 45%; RUS-17 is roughly even (about 50–55%).

EU-T2 (European internal stability) (EUR-03 hit). At the end of Monday's social conference, Prime Minister Lecornu announced a 1.6% minimum-wage rise (about €24 net) from 1 Dec (Basta!). The CGT, with UNSA, FSU and Solidaires, then called an interprofessional strike for 17 Nov in the public and private sectors (CGT, 9 Nov; UNSA, 9 Nov). The CFDT and FO did not join (Les Echos). EI-1 SIGNIFICANT, EI-2 ABNORMAL, EI-3 SIGNIFICANT, EI-4 ROUTINE. POTENTIAL CRISIS (=). New call EUR-04 tests the turnout on 17 Nov.

IV. AMERICAS: AM-T1 US ELECTION INTEGRITY (MIDTERMS) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS

Mississippi. Colom's unofficial lead stays at 2,574. More than 14,000 affidavit ballots have been processed, about 77% of them accepted. Hinds County's resolution committee is expected to rule on affidavit acceptance on 11 Nov, and counties must certify by 13 Nov (WLBT, 10 Nov). The Democratic candidate questions the state's past use of Experian data for inactive-voter lists; the Secretary of State's office says it no longer uses it (WAPT, 9 Nov).

Alaska. Monday's update added about 4,947 ballots. Peltola now leads Sullivan 106,321 to 103,804 (2,517 first-choice votes), and ranked-choice tabulation is on 18 Nov (Alaska Public Media, 9 Nov). No refusal to certify and no suit against a called race have been verified (MID-03, MID-09 open). This desk scores process risk only and takes no position on any party's programme.

Indicators. M-1 ABNORMAL (=). M-2 ABNORMAL (=). M-3 ROUTINE. M-4 ROUTINE (low conf.). M-5 ROUTINE (canvass under way). M-6 ROUTINE. M-7 ABNORMAL (=; voter-roll dispute). M-8 ROUTINE. M-9 ROUTINE. Roll-up: 3 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT. Trend =.

AM-T2 (hemispheric security), brief. SOUTHCOM's press-release index still shows 27 Oct as its latest "Lethal Kinetic Strike," with no November releases (SOUTHCOM). AMR-01 is 0 of 3 with 20 days left. We judge it now unlikely (about 25%), far below its logged 80%. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

V. INDO-PACIFIC

Taiwan Strait (IP-T1). For the 24 hours to 06:00 on 10 Nov, MND reported 4 PLA aircraft sorties, 8 PLAN ships and 1 official ship (MND, 10 Nov). There was no joint combat readiness patrol (IPA-04) and no 45+ day (IPA-05). I-1 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

Korean Peninsula (IP-T2). The latest JCS-reported launch is still the 4 Nov salvo from Sondok, which flew under 300 km (Yonhap). K-1 ABNORMAL, K-2 ROUTINE, K-3 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

South China Sea (IP-T3). The last dated water-cannon use against a Philippine government vessel is still 8 Oct (Inquirer). The SCMP reports Chinese water-cannon and drone drills near disputed shoals. Those are drills, not use against a Philippine vessel (SCMP). IPA-02 open. SC-1/SC-2 ABNORMAL, SC-3 ROUTINE. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

VI. AFRICA

Baseline work: Statement of Normalcy, AF-T2 Sahel (refresh; first written 26 Oct, refreshed 2 Nov)

SUBJECT: Central Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) QUESTION: is a junta, a capital or the regional order about to break beyond the 2023-26 norm? (Internal Stability + Strategic Competition; PMESII-PT: Political, Military, Infrastructure) Normal 2024-26 (a war-time norm): AES juntas in power and backed by Russia's Africa Corps; JNIM and IS Sahel hold much of the countryside; recurrent mass-casualty raids on posts; Bamako under a declared JNIM fuel blockade with supply by escorted convoy; coups plotted and foiled at intervals. Refresh note (10 Nov): large escorted convoys into Bamako (hundreds of tankers a week) are now part of the norm. SA-2 moves only on a convoy destroyed en route, an attack inside a capital, or a 14+ day fuel cut. A host-invited, energy-protection contingent (Algeria) sits at Abnormal; it rises only if that contingent enters combat. SA-1 Regime stability (L) R: juntas in place, no attempt in 60 days | A: officially reported plot or officer arrests | S: failed coup or mutiny within 60 days | E: a successful coup SA-2 Pressure on capitals (L) R: rural posts and roads | A: declared blockade of a regional town or corridor | S: declared blockade of a capital with escorted supply only, or an attack inside a capital | E: a capital's fuel cut 14+ days, or a capital stormed/encircled SA-3 Lethality vs state forces (Lg) R: events under 20 killed | A: one event of 20-49 in 45 days | S: one event of 50+, or 50+ in one day | E: 100+ in one event, or a regional capital overrun SA-4 Foreign forces (L) R: Africa Corps and Turkish drone support as now | A: announced entry or exit of a foreign contingent | S: foreign forces in direct large-scale combat | E: foreign intervention to defend or topple a government Baseline sources: RFI/AFP, Reuters, official communiques, ACLED, ISS Africa, Vigil Consilium corridor watch (named as secondary). Period: 1 Sep-9 Nov 2026 Current reading. SA-1: No officially reported plot or mutiny has been found since the late-August Air Base 101 mutiny in Niamey, which falls outside the 60-day window. ROUTINE. SA-2: JNIM's declared fuel blockade of Bamako continues. Supply arrives only in military-escorted convoys: a reported 596 tankers on 31 Oct and 665 on 7 Nov (Afreeque, secondary). SIGNIFICANT (escorted supply only). SA-3: the 23 Sep ISSP attack in Niger (57 security personnel killed) left the 45-day window on 7 Nov. Vigil Consilium's review to 7 Nov found no attack on a position or convoy in Mali, and Burkina Faso remains a visibility gap (Vigil Consilium, 8 Nov). ROUTINE. SA-4: Algeria's military chief of staff, Saïd Chanegriha, said on 9 Nov that the deployment of a military unit to northern Niger, decided by President Tebboune and approved by parliament, is meant to protect joint energy projects at Niger's request (Xinhua, 10 Nov). Algerian troops escorted a 53-tanker fuel convoy to Agadez on 31 Oct (RFI and Niger's broadcaster, per Vigil Consilium). No stationed unit at a named site has been officially confirmed. ABNORMAL.

Indicators. SA-1 ROUTINE, SA-2 SIGNIFICANT, SA-3 ROUTINE, SA-4 ABNORMAL. Roll-up: 1 Significant + 1 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=). No override.

Analyst Comment. The Sahel is quieter in lethality than its norm but more crowded strategically: Algeria on the energy route, the Africa Corps in Kidal, and a Niger–Haftar memorandum. AFR-02 is roughly even (about 40–45%), under its logged 60%. AFR-03 (official confirmation of a named fixed site) is roughly even (about 50%): the military chief's statement confirms the unit, not its site.

Sudan and the Horn (AF-T1). An RSF drone strike killed nine civilians in Bani Shako, Blue Nile state, on 9 Nov, according to a local official (Sudan Tribune). No UN-reported single event of 50 or more killed was found (AFR-01 open). AF-1 SIGNIFICANT, AF-2 ABNORMAL, AF-3 ABNORMAL, AF-4 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

VII. INDICATORS TO WATCH | EWC / EWP ASSESSMENT

VIII. PREDICTIONS

Resolved today (3): - WAR-29: HIT. Kpler's 5 Nov briefing reports 11,455 kbd (67% of baseline) for the 7 days to 3 Nov (Kpler). Logged at 0.30; Brier 0.49. - RUS-13: HIT. US, Russian and Ukrainian officials met in person in Abu Dhabi on 10 Nov (ABC News). Logged at 0.50; Brier 0.25. - EUR-03: HIT. The CGT, with UNSA, FSU and Solidaires, called a 17 Nov interprofessional strike on 9 Nov (CGT). Logged at 0.55; Brier 0.2025.

PREDICTION LEDGER CHECK (WI prefixes): open calls due within 7 days (by 17 Nov). - WAR-26 (Kpler under 40% by 13 Nov, 35%): latest print is 46% (10 Nov). Open; leaning miss. - WAR-19 (KKIA halt by 15 Nov, 30%): Riyadh was targeted again, but no halt was reported. Open. - WAR-27 (in-person US–Iran meeting by 15 Nov, 40%): a meeting is claimed for "next week" by Turkey, and Iran denies it. Open; leaning miss. - RUS-16 (500+ night by 15 Nov, 45%): latest nights were 317 and 163. Open; leaning miss.

Other open: WAR-01/02/04/25/31–37, RUS-01/04/12/17/18, LEV-01/02, EUR-01/04, IPA-02/04/05, AFR-01/02/03, AMR-01, MID-03/09, GLB-01.

New predictions (dated 2026-11-10): - WAR-37: The US Senate adopts the Iran war-powers resolution (H.Con.Res.93) on or before 20 November 2026, per the Senate roll-call record. 45%, roughly even. Resolve by 2026-11-20. - EUR-04: France's Interior Ministry counts 500,000 or more demonstrators nationwide on the 17 November strike day. 35%, unlikely. Resolve by 2026-11-19.

IX. GAPS AND UNVERIFIED

• Vance–Rezaei meeting in Doha "next week": claimed by Turkey's intelligence chief (via Middle East Eye and others), denied by Iran. Unconfirmed by the White House.
• Qeshm 8–9 Nov strike: reported by Iranian officials only. The US has not acknowledged it.
• Mildenhall threat: the nature of the Iranian threat is unspecified (WSJ via NBC). EUCOM gave no reason.
• Khor Mor: the Tuz Khurmatu launch point comes from Reuters sources and is not officially established. No claim has been made.
• IRGC claims of destroyed navigational aids in the strait are unverified.
• Sahel: Bamako convoy counts come from secondary outlets. RFI's report that an Algerian unit will be based in Niamey and at a former French site rests on unnamed sources. Burkina Faso casualty reporting is a gap.
• Sudan: ACLED October figure not retrieved; Kordofan control claims contested.
• Kpler: the 5 Nov briefing was missed by this desk until today. Briefings dated 7–9 Nov were not found at the usual address.
• Rates and mortgage detail is in the owner-only note (cross-ref Economics WIRE).

Sources

All sources are linked inline. Primary and data sources: Kpler media briefings (5, 6 and 10 Nov); INSP SitRep 177; CENTCOM release on Task Force Iron Gate; Senate Daily Press (9 Nov); Taiwan MND PLA activity report (10 Nov); SOUTHCOM press index; Ukrainian Air Force (via Interfax-Ukraine, Ukrainska Pravda); CGT and UNSA communiques; France Diplomatie attribution statement; Saudi Energy Ministry/SPA and coalition statements (via AFP/Al Jazeera, Arab News); Algerian Ministry of National Defense (via Xinhua). Reporting as linked (AP, AFP, Reuters-relayed outlets, BBC, ABC, NBC, CNBC, Al Jazeera, regional and local press).

WIRE World Instability | WIRE Desk | Open-source analysis. Not investment, legal or voting advice. UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE.

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