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UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE | Wednesday, 11 November 2026 | Vol. 2026-315 | As of 110600 EST NOV 26

Baseline work today: the Levant and Syria (ME-T2) Statement of Normalcy is refreshed below (first written 28 Oct, refreshed 3 Nov). Next in the rotation: EU-T2. Comparisons are against the 10 Nov edition.

BLUF. The Middle East stays at PROBABLE CRISIS, and the family trend turns up (↑) because the physical indicators worsened while the diplomatic ones stood still. Kpler's 11 Nov briefing puts Total Hormuz Clearance at 30% of its pre-war level for the 7 days to 9 Nov, which resolves WAR-26 as a hit. The daily readings for 8–9 Nov were near 2,000 kbd or lower; they are preliminary and usually revise upward. An ADNOC vessel was damaged by an attack inside UAE territorial waters. UKMTO logged a projectile strike off Oman, and Iran says tankers on an "unauthorised route" hit mines. Iran's security chief says there are no talks and that Hormuz stays shut until Washington meets seven conditions. Qatar says its mediation has made "progress." Brent rebounded to about $92. The Abu Dhabi trilateral ended its second day without a ceasefire. Global roll-up: PROBABLE CRISIS (↑).

0. WIRE World Instability Dashboard

Level changes since 10 Nov: none. Trend changes: ME-T1 and Global = to ↑. Trend key: ↑ toward crisis, ↓ away, = no net change.

Moved indicators (vs 10 November). Within band: W-1 EXTREME ↑ (clearance 30%, mines and projectile hits); W-6 SIGNIFICANT ↑ (ADNOC vessel hit in UAE waters); W-7 ABNORMAL ↑ (Brent ~$92 from ~$90); W-8 SIGNIFICANT (=; Qatar says "progress," and Iran denies any talks); R-10 ABNORMAL (=; round closed without a ceasefire); LV-4 SIGNIFICANT (=; SoN refreshed).

I. GLOBAL ROLL-UP (GL-T1) | PROBABLE CRISIS

The family level remains the Middle East's PROBABLE CRISIS, set by W-1 and W-2 at Extreme. The trend is ↑: two physical indicators rose within band (W-1, W-6) and none fell, while diplomacy held at yesterday's mixed reading. No Imminent tripwire is met (W-5 or W-6 at Extreme; R-4/R-6 at Extreme).

GL-T2 (Health and Bio) stays ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=). INSP's SitRep 179 reports 11,042 confirmed Bundibugyo cases and 5,387 deaths in the DRC as of 9 Nov, with 52 new confirmed cases that day (INSP SitRep 179, via ebola-tracker).

Analyst Comment. GLB-01 needs about 46 confirmed cases a day to reach 12,000 by 30 Nov. The last two daily figures were 41 and 52, so the call is roughly even (about 45–55%). The Middle East is the only region whose indicators moved today, and it moved the wrong way.

II. MIDDLE EAST: ME-T1 WIDESPREAD WAR (ISRAEL-ORIGINATED) | PROBABLE CRISIS

Hormuz (WAR-26 hit). Kpler's 11 Nov briefing reports Total Hormuz Clearance of 5,114 kbd over the 7 days to 9 Nov, about 30% of the 17,148 kbd pre-war level. Strait transits made up 4,057 kbd and Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship exports 1,057 kbd. Daily clearance was 10,715 kbd on 6 Nov, 8,818 on 7 Nov, 1,324 on 8 Nov and 1,996 on 9 Nov. The latest four days are preliminary, and Kpler notes such readings have typically settled 1.5 to 2 times higher. Tanker crossings averaged 10 a day against 50 before the war. Adding Fujairah and Oman terminal loadings gives 43% of a wider baseline (Kpler, 11 Nov). The print meets WAR-26's sub-40% bar inside its window. Kpler also reports that Gulf crude arrivals in India have overtaken Russian arrivals for the first time since the war began.

Attacks on shipping. ADNOC said one of its vessels "sustained damage following an attack in the UAE's territorial waters" on 10 Nov, without naming the vessel or an attacker (Anadolu; Khaleej Times). UKMTO reported a tanker "struck by an unknown projectile" northeast of Lima, Oman. The IRGC claimed three tankers caught fire after hitting mines on an "unauthorised route" (Al Jazeera, 11 Nov). On Wednesday morning, Iran's regular naval forces said another "violating" tanker struck a mine and caught fire (Gulf News live). The US military had said the strait was cleared of mines. The Washington Institute counted 37 attacks on ships in and around the strait in October, the highest monthly total of the war, and 10 so far in November (CNBC, 11 Nov).

Diplomacy. Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei told Al-Mayadeen there are no negotiations with Washington. He said the US response to Iran's seven conditions was "insufficient and deceptive" and that Hormuz will not reopen until they are met (The Hindu / Reuters). Araghchi said the two-day reopening proposal stays on the table. Secretary Rubio said there was no need for major combat operations, and the President posted that he saw "positive momentum" (Dawn / AFP). Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman said the mediation "gained significant momentum" and that "there is progress in the negotiations" (The Peninsula). WAR-27 (in-person meeting by 15 Nov) still leans toward a miss.

Threats outside the theatre. The Justice Department unsealed an eight-count superseding indictment charging three men with roles in nearly 20 attacks and attempted attacks in Europe and the US for Kata'ib Hizballah and the IRGC, including a September plot against RAF Fairford (DOJ, 10 Nov). Iran denies involvement in the Fairford incident (BBC). Sources say Treasury Secretary Bessent moved to a military base after Iranian threats (Al Jazeera, 11 Nov).

Houthi–Saudi front. The coalition said it intercepted a ballistic and a cruise missile over Riyadh, a ballistic missile over the south and a drone over the Eastern Province. Civil defence issued alerts in Riyadh, Abha and Khamis Mushait (Al-Monitor / Reuters). The Houthis claimed hits on King Khalid International Airport, East-West pipeline pumping stations and Abqaiq; Saudi Arabia has not confirmed any damage. Riyadh schools moved online (Middle East Eye). No airport halt (WAR-19) and no facility shutdown (WAR-34) has been reported.

US forces. USS Theodore Roosevelt left Singapore on 8 Nov for the region (Stars and Stripes). WAR-32 stays open pending a USNI or DoD placement in the CENTCOM area.

Israel. Eisenkot pledged a "national emergency government as soon as possible." UTJ set three conditions it calls non-negotiable, and Shas said it stays with Netanyahu. Liberman ruled out reliance on Arab parties and said he will question the security chiefs on "efforts to carry out actions" against Iran (Times of Israel). Channel 12 reports that the chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, renewed his opposition to unspecified actions the caretaker Prime Minister wants against Iran. The PMO called the report "biased fake news" (Times of Israel). WAR-33 (confidence vote by 6 Dec) is open.

US Congress. The Senate vote on H.Con.Res.93 is still set for no later than 20 Nov (Senate Daily Press, 10 Nov). The House tabled an impeachment resolution against the Defense Secretary 211–204 (Gulf News live, citing US media).

Iraq / Khor Mor. Dana Gas says production stays suspended while damage is assessed (Kurdistan24). WAR-35 (restart by 20 Nov) is open.

Prices. Brent was up 0.78% at $92.20 at 01:19 GMT on 11 Nov after a two-month low in the prior session; WTI was at $86.53 (CNBC).

Indicators. W-1 EXTREME (↑ within band; clearance 30%, mines and projectiles). W-2 EXTREME (=; Riyadh and Eastern Province salvos). W-3 SIGNIFICANT (=). W-4 ABNORMAL (=). W-5 SIGNIFICANT (=; third carrier en route, force-protection moves). W-6 SIGNIFICANT (↑ within band; ADNOC vessel hit in UAE waters, Khor Mor shut). W-7 ABNORMAL (↑ within band; ~$92). W-8 SIGNIFICANT (=). Roll-up: 2 Extreme + 4 Significant + 2 Abnormal = PROBABLE. Tripwires not met. Trend ↑.

Analyst Comment. The gap between talk and the water is widening. Washington and Doha speak of momentum, while Tehran says no talks exist and the strait carried well under half its pre-war flow for a week. The 30% print will likely revise upward, but even a 1.5x revision leaves the week near 45%. An attack inside UAE waters marks the war's pressure moving onto Gulf states' own assets. A Kpler print of 50% or more by 25 Nov is roughly even (45%); see new call WAR-38. A resumption of major US combat before 30 Nov stays unlikely (about 15–20%).

ME-T2 (Levant). See the Baseline work section below.

III. EUROPE/RUSSIA: EU-T1 RUSSIAN AGGRESSION | POTENTIAL CRISIS

Talks. The second day of the Abu Dhabi trilateral ended at 13:19 Moscow time after about two hours. The first day ran nearly four hours (RIA Novosti). Kushner told delegates the US had "narrowed the gaps" (Guardian live). Lavrov rejected a ceasefire and accused Europeans of seeking a truce to deploy forces in Ukraine (Euronews). Zelensky listed three aims: an energy or maritime ceasefire, a prisoner exchange and preparation of a leaders' meeting. Western media report that the US envoys may travel to Moscow and then Kyiv (RBC-Ukraine). National security advisers from France, Germany, the UK and Italy, plus NATO and EU officials, met separately with the Ukrainian and US teams (Kyiv Independent). RUS-17 (a named follow-on date by 25 Nov) is open. New call RUS-19 tests the Moscow trip.

Strikes. From 18:00 on 10 Nov, Russia launched a Kh-59/69 missile, 163 drones (91 jet-powered) and S8000 Banderol/Dan-T missiles. 130 drones and 14 Banderols were downed or suppressed, with hits at 17 locations (Interfax-Ukraine / Air Force). Kryvyi Rih lost power and heating in parts of the city (Ukrinform). A Ukrainian drone attack caused a fire at Russia's Ust-Luga port (Ukrainska Pravda). Neither RUS-16 (500+ night by 15 Nov) nor RUS-18 (30+ ballistic) is met.

Indicators. R-3 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-4 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-5 SIGNIFICANT (=). R-6 / R-8 ABNORMAL (=). R-10 ABNORMAL (=; the round closed without a ceasefire, and work continues). R-1 ROUTINE. Roll-up: 3 Significant = POTENTIAL. Trend =.

Analyst Comment. For the second night running, Moscow kept its strike package mid-sized while talks were under way. RUS-16 is unlikely (about 15–20%) with four nights left. The talks produced process, not a pause.

EU-T2 (European internal stability), brief. The CFDT leader denies a "division" of the union front, but the CFDT and FO stay out of the national 17 Nov call (France 24 / AFP). FO has reportedly joined the public-sector strike call on the pay index (Le Journal des Français, secondary). EI-1 SIGNIFICANT, EI-2 ABNORMAL, EI-3 SIGNIFICANT, EI-4 ROUTINE. POTENTIAL CRISIS (=). EUR-04 (Interior Ministry count of 500k+) is unlikely (about 30%).

IV. AMERICAS: AM-T1 US ELECTION INTEGRITY (MIDTERMS) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS

Mississippi. Colom leads Hyde-Smith by more than 2,800 votes in unofficial results, and counties must certify by Friday, 13 Nov (WLBT). About 24% of affidavit ballots were rejected statewide, including some in Hinds County (WLBT).

Alaska. Peltola leads Sullivan 118,926 to 114,676 (4,250 first-choice votes) with about 84% of expected ballots counted. Ranked-choice tabulation is on 18 Nov (Alaska Public Media).

No refusal to certify and no suit against a called race have been verified (MID-03, MID-09 open). This desk scores process risk only and takes no position on any party's programme.

Indicators. M-1 ABNORMAL (=). M-2 ABNORMAL (=). M-3 ROUTINE. M-4 ROUTINE (low confidence). M-5 ROUTINE. M-6 ROUTINE. M-7 ABNORMAL (=). M-8 ROUTINE. M-9 ROUTINE. Roll-up: 3 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT. Trend =.

AM-T2 (hemispheric security), brief. No November SOUTHCOM "Lethal Kinetic Strike" release has been found. Just Security's timeline still lists 27 Oct as the latest (72nd) strike (Just Security). Third-party lists showing "November" strikes describe November 2025 events. AMR-01 stays at 0 of 3 with 19 days left; we judge it unlikely (about 20%). ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

V. INDO-PACIFIC (IP-T1 TO IP-T3) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS

Taiwan. In the 24 hours to 06:00 on 11 Nov, Taiwan's defence ministry detected 4 PLA aircraft sorties, 7 PLAN ships and 3 official ships. Two sorties crossed the median line into the southwestern ADIZ (MND). No joint combat readiness patrol has been reported (IPA-04 open), and no day has reached 45 sorties (IPA-05 open). I-1 ABNORMAL.

Korea. No launch has been found since the 4 Nov multiple-missile launch from Sondok (Yonhap). K-1 ABNORMAL.

South China Sea. The last dated water-cannon use against a Philippine government vessel is still 8 Oct (Inquirer). IPA-02 stays open. SC-1/SC-2 ABNORMAL.

All three topics: ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

VI. AFRICA (AF-T1, AF-T2) | ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS

Sudan and the Horn (AF-T1). Anadolu confirms, citing a local official, that an RSF drone strike on Bani Shako, Blue Nile state, killed nine civilians who were travelling to displacement shelters in Ed Damazin (Anadolu). No UN-reported single event of 50 or more killed was found (AFR-01 open). AF-1 SIGNIFICANT, AF-2 ABNORMAL, AF-3 ABNORMAL, AF-4 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=).

Sahel (AF-T2). JNIM claims it burned fuel tankers between Zégoua and Sikasso on the Côte d'Ivoire corridor. Neither the attack nor Bamako's figure of 665 escorted tankers arriving on 7 Nov has been independently confirmed (MEFILES, secondary). Under the 10 Nov SoN refresh, SA-2 moves only if a convoy is destroyed en route, so it stays SIGNIFICANT. SA-1 ROUTINE, SA-3 ROUTINE, SA-4 ABNORMAL. ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=). AFR-02 and AFR-03 are open.

Baseline work: Statement of Normalcy, ME-T2 Levant and Syria (refresh; first written 28 Oct, refreshed 3 Nov)

SUBJECT: Levant and Syria internal stability (focus: Syria, Lebanon, Jordan border) Normal for this theatre since the 2024-25 transition in Damascus is a weak but recognised central government, localised clashes (Suwayda, the coast, the north-east), a heavily armed southern Lebanon under a contested ceasefire and a US-sponsored framework (26 Jun 2026), and periodic foreign strikes. LV-1 Violence volume (Security; L): ACLED weekly events vs 8-week mean. ROUTINE <= +25%; ABNORMAL +25-75%; SIGNIFICANT +75-150%; EXTREME > +150% LV-2 Displacement (Social; Lg): UNHCR/IOM new displacement per week. ROUTINE < 10k; ABNORMAL 10-50k; SIGNIFICANT 50-200k; EXTREME > 200k LV-3 Central control (Political/Security; L): ROUTINE no loss of a provincial capital; ABNORMAL a provincial road cut or a governorate in armed standoff with the centre; SIGNIFICANT loss of a provincial capital; EXTREME loss of Damascus or Beirut security LV-4 Foreign-force incursions (Military; L): ROUTINE isolated cross-border fire; ABNORMAL repeated foreign strikes in one country; SIGNIFICANT foreign strikes in two countries in one week, or foreign forces holding ground; EXTREME a foreign ground offensive toward a capital Refresh note (11 Nov): thresholds unchanged. Daily Israeli fire, demolitions and ground movements inside the southern strip are part of the norm while forces hold ground. Watch item added under LV-4: the UNIFIL drawdown (mandate ends 31 Dec). Attacks on peacekeepers, or Israeli forces moving into vacated UNIFIL areas, score at the upper edge of SIGNIFICANT. A strike on Beirut's southern suburbs stays the upper edge of SIGNIFICANT (LEV-02). Baseline sources / period reviewed: Lebanese Health Ministry and NNA, L'Orient Today, UNIFIL statements, SANA and Syrian monitors (named as secondary), Jordanian and Syrian statements (Mar-Nov 2026) Current reading. Lebanon: the Health Ministry's 5 Nov table counts 4,390 killed and 12,429 injured since 2 March (Libnanews, citing MoPH/NNA), against 4,389 and 12,428 on 2 Nov. Death counts are near flat. On 10 Nov, Israeli forces struck and shelled Qantara through the day (including tank fire), blew up structures in Tiri and four homes in Zawtar Sharqieh, and moved vehicles toward Mari and inside Khiam. UNIFIL said a patrol near Wadi Jilo came under fire on 9 Nov from unidentified shooters, and the Lebanese military reopened the Qaraoun Dam road (L'Orient Today, 10 Nov, updated 23:11; link withheld because its URL slug fails this desk's style filter; strikes also reported by Al-Manar). G7 ministers agreed on the need to avoid a "security void" when UNIFIL withdraws, and France's foreign minister reported no breakthrough on a replacement force (Times of Israel / AFP). Al-Manar reports Israeli drone activity over the southern suburbs, but no strike there has been reported. Syria: a landmine killed two Syrian soldiers near al-Mazraa in western Suwayda on 4 Nov (North Press). Jordan border: Syria and Jordan formed a joint committee on the 26 Oct Daraa strikes and compensation (Syria Now). There has been no new Jordanian strike.

Indicators. LV-1 not scored (no ACLED pull; data gap). LV-2 ROUTINE. LV-3 ABNORMAL (Suwayda standoff persists). LV-4 SIGNIFICANT (forces holding ground, with daily fire). Roll-up: 1 Significant + 1 Abnormal = ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISIS (=). No override.

Analyst Comment. The Levant is in steady low-casualty pressure: one more death in nine days in the ministry count, despite daily fire. The structural change to watch is UNIFIL's exit, which removes the buffer that absorbs incidents. Hezbollah's response to any renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran remains the swing factor. LEV-02 stays unlikely (about 25–30%) and LEV-01 unlikely (about 15–20%), both below their logged 35% and 30%.

VII. INDICATORS TO WATCH | EWC / EWP ASSESSMENT

VIII. PREDICTIONS

Resolved today (1): - WAR-26: HIT. Kpler's 11 Nov briefing reports Total Hormuz Clearance of 5,114 kbd over the 7 days to 9 Nov, about 30% of the pre-war level (Kpler). Logged at 0.35; Brier 0.4225. The criteria count any briefing in the window, preliminary days included.

PREDICTION LEDGER CHECK (WI prefixes): open calls due within 7 days (by 18 Nov). - WAR-19 (KKIA halt by 15 Nov, 30%): Houthis claim hits on the airport, but no halt has been reported. Open; leaning miss. - WAR-27 (in-person US–Iran meeting by 15 Nov, 40%): Iran says there are no talks. Open; leaning miss. - RUS-16 (500+ night by 15 Nov, 45%): latest nights were 163 and 162 drones. Open; leaning miss. - EUR-04 (Interior Ministry count of 500k+ on 17 Nov, 35%; resolves by 19 Nov): just outside the window, listed for the strike day. Open.

Other open: WAR-01/02/04/25/31–38, RUS-01/04/12/17/18/19, LEV-01/02, EUR-01, IPA-02/04/05, AFR-01/02/03, AMR-01, MID-03/09, GLB-01.

New predictions (dated 2026-11-11): - WAR-38: A Kpler media briefing dated 12–25 Nov 2026 reports 7-day Total Hormuz Clearance at or above 50% of its pre-war baseline. 45%, roughly even. Resolve by 2026-11-25. - RUS-19: US envoy Steve Witkoff and/or Jared Kushner meet Vladimir Putin in person between 12 and 25 Nov 2026, per Kremlin or White House confirmation. 40%, unlikely. Resolve by 2026-11-25.

IX. GAPS AND UNVERIFIED

• Kpler 30%: the latest four days are preliminary; Kpler says such readings have typically settled 1.5–2x higher.
• ADNOC vessel: no vessel name, damage extent or attacker given. Nothing links it yet to the IRGC mine claims.
• IRGC and naval mine claims: tankers not named and not confirmed by UKMTO or JMIC, which reported only a projectile strike near Lima.
• Houthi claims of hits on KKIA, pumping stations and Abqaiq: not confirmed by Saudi authorities.
• Netanyahu daily calls to the President: a Financial Times report (via Times of Israel and Anadolu); the US ambassador said he was not aware of it. The Zamir report cites unnamed sources and is denied by the PMO.
• Bessent move: relies on unnamed sources (NYT, via Reuters/Al Jazeera).
• US envoys to Moscow: reported by Western media, not confirmed by either government.
• France: FO's public-sector call is from a secondary outlet.
• Sahel: the JNIM tanker claim and Bamako's convoy count are both unconfirmed. Burkina Faso remains a visibility gap.
• Levant: no ACLED pull (LV-1 unscored). The Lebanese ministry table is dated 5 Nov, and the Dahiyeh drone report is single-source (Al-Manar).
• SOUTHCOM: the press-release index could not be read directly from the box today; we used Just Security's timeline (updated 27 Oct) and the absence of any dated November 2026 release in reporting.
• Rates and mortgage detail is in the owner-only note (cross-ref Economics WIRE).

Sources

All sources are linked inline. Primary and data sources: Kpler media briefing (11 Nov); INSP SitRep 179; DOJ Office of Public Affairs; Senate Daily Press (10 Nov); Taiwan MND PLA activity report (11 Nov); Ukrainian Air Force (via Interfax-Ukraine, Ukrinform); ADNOC statement (via Anadolu, Khaleej Times); Qatar MoFA briefing (via The Peninsula); Lebanese Health Ministry table (via Libnanews); UNIFIL statements (via L'Orient Today); Dana Gas (via Kurdistan24). Reporting as linked (Reuters-relayed outlets, AFP, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, CNBC, Times of Israel, regional and local press).

WIRE World Instability | WIRE Desk | Open-source analysis. Not investment, legal or voting advice. UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE.

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